Earth and Water. Ocean Fluids Dynamics, Tidal Forces, and Water in empty Space
The dynamics of water, from the vast ocean currents and tidal forces that shape our planet to its behavior in…
Dollar Overnight Money Market interest rate rise to 5.4%
The SOFR rates (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) a direct interest rate function of the Federal Reserve money market system increased…
Italian Government -8.8% Q1 fiscal deficit seems way out of order
The quarterly non-financial sector account summary of Italy’s General Government account gives a brief concise framework of Italy’s public finances…
Extracting Market Performance and Volatility Patterns of Blue-Chip Stocks and the FTSE100 Index
Samples of FTSE100 blue chip stocks and the FTSE100 index have been elaborated to understand the stocks’ returns and the…
The USA Unemployment rate drifting toward non-cyclical rate of unemployment hints at a possible Recession scenario going forward
OBSERVING CORE INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND NON-CYCLICAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT, VERY SIMPLE GRAPHS EXPLAIN A LOT. EVERY TIME THE UNEMPLOYMENT…
EUR/USD 1.068 exchange rate will probably become more volatile, with EUR/USD parity
The Euro could be set to become much more volatile in the FX market, considering the interest rates differential with…
Econometrics forecast research about USA macroeconomic timeseries
In the quest for clues about how the global economy could perform in the coming quarters, additional econometrics research has…
MAJOR POUND STERLING EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY STUDY
GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY AND GBP/USD GRAPHS OF HISTORICAL VOLATILITY CALCULATED WITH 30 DAYS STDV OF LOG RETURNS, THEN 3-MONTH, 6-MONTH AND…
How the USA economy could perform in the coming quarters ?
Latest Q1 data from the USA economy have seen a decrease in the rate of GDP expansion in Q1 correlated…
Russians bought up $6.3 billion in Dubai property after 2022 Ukraine invasion, report finds
Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian nationals have bought up $6.3 billion in existing and in-development properties in Dubai,…
Moody’s downgrades Mobico’s rating to Baa3; downgrades the company’s £1.5 billion backed senior unsecured medium term note (MTN) programme to (P)Baa3 from (P)Baa2, its £250 million backed senior unsecured medium term notes due 2028
Moody’s Ratings (Moody’s) has today downgraded Mobico Group PLC’s (Mobico) long-term issuer rating to Baa3 from Baa2. At the same…
Federal Fund Effective Rate Comparative (ATSM) Analysis of Interest Rate Forecast
CIR interest rate forecast model Cox Ingersoll Ross model to forecast interest rate variables in simple terms defines an Effective…
Sweden Q1 -1.1% economic growth figures confirm recession for four quarters in a row
Latest Swedish GDP figures confirm a recessionary trend that has been accelerating in momentum, with a -1.1% Q1 economic growth…
Comcast overpriced acquisition of Sky plc implied devastating effects on Comcast debt leverage. Soon the corporate could seek for potential buyers to offload Sky plc
Comcast balance sheet has been poisoned with the acquisition of the British Broadcast Sky Plc, that has brought additional leverage…
When Ireland can agree to a unification referendum with Northern Ireland, according to the Good Friday Agreement
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement explicitly envisages a possible referendum on the creation of a United Ireland. A significant section…
Economic investments and economic growth are distinct from stock speculation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p40L8GkcT1g
Investments in the Economy amount to tangible output production. Speculative stocks are not
Would be useful to actually make a material distinction between investments and speculative investments. INVESTMENTS IN THE ECONOMY ARE MADE…
Estimating volatility of Inflation metrics, implementing MSE volatility, ARCH GARCH HS comparison
Study of Inflation metrics volatility has been started with estimating the 3/6/9/12 months volatility extracted form Mean Squared Error in…
Love and Unity: Aristophanes’ Myth of Eros in Plato’s Symposium
Aristophanes manages to relieve himself of hiccups by applying a remedy – sneezing stimulation – suggested by Erissimachus, whose name,…
Navigating Credit Spreads: Understanding Yield Curve Volatility and Fiscal Deficit Risks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLKLaY2hotU
The Price Surge: How Commodities, Energy, and Deficits Fuel Inflation (and What You Can Do About It)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APmqaMR3UV4
Navigating the Risks of Speculative Bubbles of the Magnificent Seven
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W1rqJAt9AM
Money Market: How it Works and Why You Should Care
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpjZ6hvR9gg
A.I. STOCK MARKET BUBBLE ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcnGrEZvso0
Financial Derivatives and Their Risks for Financial and Economic Stability
Financial derivatives have revolutionized modern finance by providing tools for risk management, speculation, and investment. However, their widespread use also…
Basel III: A globalregulatory framework formore resilient banks andbanking systems
BASEL III: Strengthening the Backbone of the Global Financial System The world of finance is an ever-evolving landscape, shaped by…
Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Fat-Tail Distribution Assumptions
Financial Econometrics studies have demonstrated that forecasting Value At Risk under standard normal distribution conditions could lead to underestimation of…
Higher Prices for Longer, you’re all screwed up, unless you’ll embrace unemployment
John Maynard Keynes theorized and explained the necessity of aggregate supply/demand equilibrium, the Fed messed it all up and now…
Capitalism as an economic and social science can’t be imposed as a dogma. Humanity has to achieve better than consumerism
When we observe the Universe, becomes evident the insignificant meaning of planet Earth in the Milky Way, and the insignificant…
Unveiling the Complex Tapestry of Stock Market Crashes: A Comprehensive Exploration
The history of financial markets is punctuated by episodes of euphoria and despair, with stock market crashes serving as ominous…
Muslim Theocratic Regimes are out of history, out of time, and incompatible with the free world based on the Greek-Roman Civilization
Like Strauss in his famous book “Das Leben Jesu”, The Life of Jesus, treats the idea of God and the…
BUOYANT NIKKEI 225 FUTURES BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INFLOWS IN JAPANESE EQUITIES
Japanese equities continue to attract inflows, the Nikkei225 ‘Mar Futures contract had a very positive session with a 2.32% breakout…
10y Treasuries and 10y BTP could be at risk of a brutal force sell-off, on Fiscal deficit worries
Treasuries futures chart Ultra 10-Year Treasuries chart signals a downtrend and drifts lower in the price of the Bond. There…
From Communism to Consumerism. Massification and commodification of mankind
“Capitalism has survived communism. Now, it eats away at itself.” Charles Bukowski Humanity has been forced to live in a…
Social Media dystopian artificial world and the denaturalization of mankind
Technology, social media and propaganda made with the mass media pose an epochal paradox that erodes the foundations of logical…
UK Treasury’s at risk of GILTs funding crisis with loss of access to Sovereign Debt Market
UK-denominated Sovereign Debt GILTs could be at risk of not finding bidders and not finding a price for GILTs debt,…
Karl Jaspers on The Encompassing (1949)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hFOz2WrIKk
On “Being and Time”
Incredibly interesting how Heidegger in “Being and Time” describes the features of research and theoretical research “Posing a problem means…
Life in the UK for ordinary forgotten British people
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEWCtIKsEgw
“Make me a hinge”. Produce in the most efficient way, in the shortest time, with essential utilization of material.
It’s perhaps shocking to write but fulfilling to admit in inspiration and with an urge of human conscience, the modern…
On Capitalism and Totalitarian thought
We live in a society of waste and consumerism, but no one has the courage to admit it, because the…
On being and existence, according to Karl Jaspers
The existence of being, for Karl Jaspers, is a checkmate of the being and a shipwreck in the impossibility of…
Illiteracy resulting from social media and mass media
Technology, social media and propaganda made with the mass media pose an epochal paradox that erodes the foundations of logical…
Housing market and construction industry could be on a cliff edge in Germany
German House Price Index seems to have peaked after a parabolic multi-decade 0% interest rate Housing market and construction sector…
Where to find the literary references of, Chairman Powell, Symposium speech
The annual Jackson Hole Symposium has been anticipated, followed and commented on with much attention in the financial services industry,…
THE NIFTY50 INDEX IT’S GOING TO TOP OUT WITH A -12% EQUITIES MARKET SELL-OFF
THE CHART OF THE NIFTY50 INDEX COULD BE GOING TO SEE A SHARP FALL DOWNWARD TOPPING OUT, CONSIDERING ALSO THE…
THE FTSE100 COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF AN EQUITIES MARKET CORRECTION
The FTSE 100 chart on a monthly time scale has seen the Bollinger Band giving to the FTSE 100 price…
From the book, Obsolescence of Mankind, Gunther Anders, 1956
“To crush any revolt in advance, one must not use violence. Methods such as those used by Hitler are outdated.…
FRONT END GILTs YIELD CURVE MISPRICED COMPARED TO 5.2% INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Inflation Expectations in the United Kingdom decreased to 5.20% in April from 5.40% in March of 2023 THE FRONT END…
The S&P 500 is overvalued and a correction would be natural
A macroeconomic interpretation of the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet could be that q(t)=1+C'{I(t)}, the value of one more…
Moody’s downgrades Checkers PDR to Ca-PD/LD following missed principal payment on first-lien term loan facilities
Moody’s downgraded Checkers Holdings, Inc.’s (Checkers) probability of default rating (PDR) to Ca, its corporate family rating (CFR) to Ca…
Moody’s downgrades Checkers Holdings credit rating to Ca following missed principal payment on first-lien term loan facilities
Moody’s downgraded Checkers Holdings, Inc.’s (Checkers) probability of default rating (PDR) to Ca, its corporate family rating (CFR) to Ca…
Moody’s downgrades Provident Group to Caa3 following payment default
Approximately $36 million of debt securities affected Moody’s has downgraded to Caa3 from Caa2 the ratings assigned to Provident Group…
CMBS STRUCTURED FINANCE DEBT ISSUED BY JPMCC DOWNGRADED
Approximately $309 million of structured securities affected downgraded the ratings on two classes of CMBS securities, issued by J.P. Morgan…
Economies with persistent large deficits financed by borrowing, become prone to sustained higher inflation
Economies with persistent large deficits financed by borrowing, become prone to sustained higher inflation. When deficits become too large eventually…
“Poverty, by America”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5v-DmXUvcM
Sterling money market rates pricing a 5% bank rate peak at the Bank of England
The 3-Month (Sterling Overnight Index Average) interest rate curve forecast a 5% money market peak interest rate according to the…
The 1929 Crisis: Wall Street’s Darkest Hour – A BBC Historical Investigation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpvbAB9ecJE
The Billion Dollar Scam – BBC World Service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6JXZ3GzSCQ
Commercial Property Prices decreased by -15% since property prices peaked a year ago
Commercial Property Price Index decreased by 0.2% in March. The index has fallen by -15% since property prices peaked a…
Housing Market prices inflating to unhealthy excesses for credit markets
The housing market has probably increased to risky levels for credit markets. Since 2009, from the lowest average price to…
Treasuries yield curve correlated to CPI Inflation expectations
February CPI (excluding food & energy) year on year was 6.1%, and in Feb 2021 was 1.3%. that makes the…
EURO AREA HICP INFLATION DATA BENEFITS FROM DECREASING ENERGY PRICES
Euro Area Inflation data are quite controversial. CORE CPI jumps to 1.2% an increase of 0.4% from the previous month,…
What do we do with a drunken sailor?
On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations stand at 6.1% On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations have risen to 5.6% in…
UK INFLATION RISES TO 10.4% WITH FOOD INFLATION SURGING TO 18%
As expected the UK CPI Inflation measure increases to 10.4%. This will make sure that the OBR and Exchequer 2.9%…
UK SPRING BUDGET, ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY
The big idea coming from the UK Exchequer Spring Budget, it’s a rough measure of Capex that won’t produce what’s…
How will drift the USD/JPY exchange rate? More Dollar strength shouldn’t be ignored
Dollar/Yen chart 12 months timeframe. Every candlestick= 12 months. USD/JPY 105.95 | 106.0 exchange rate has seen the largest volume…
S&P 500 POTENTIAL -15% SELL-OFF
SPX price/volume, Daily timescale chart, below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, that means SPX in logarithmic function. Most important SPX…
France and Italy’s short-term sovereign debt seeing higher volatility
Observing high volatility in the 1-Month CTZ Italian debt yield. There’s a 348 basis point increase intraday. the yield jumped…