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Why NewsCorp shares are overvalued

A Media Conglomerate of Global Disinformation and illegal unethical practices, with a weak balance sheet and shrinking operating margins, is more preoccupied with pursuing an agenda of spreading disinformation and politically biased activism which are a constant undermining of Democracy and the civil rights of ordinary people. As a Media Conglomerate of Junk Biased Disinformation on a global scale, NewsCorp has a well-established history of serious and scandalous illegalities, that are a feature of an aggressive unethical conglomerate.

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Withstanding the aggressive disinformation of NewsCorp conglomerate operations globally, the company doesn’t generate enough operating margins to justify its current stock prices, while a reduction in costs could become a necessity. The NewsCorp full-year financial report offers a variety of data about the corporation balance sheet, such as: Cash and short-term investments have seen modest growth (6.93%) in 2024, reaching $1,960M, after a slight decline in 2021, Net PP&E has declined to $2,872M in 2024, likely due to asset depreciation and reduced gross additions, Total investments and advances have slightly declined over time, from $549M in 2022 to $444M in 2024, while Assets slightly declined to $16,684M in 2024, showing an overall decline in asset growth. On the Liabilities side, NewsCorp has tapped into Long-Term Debt Financing, Increased from $2,329M in 2020 to $3,882M in 2024, while Retained Earnings although improving from a larger deficit of ($3,21 Billion) in 2020 to a narrower ($1,88 Billion) in 2024, indicating overall low profitability of NewsCorp business lines. In fact, with a lofty Gross Margin of 50.89%, the Operating Margin shrink to 8.0% and even less Net Profit Margin (TTM) 3.49%, while the corporation averages a 5Y 9% Net Profit Margin, highlighting low profitability margins. Another metric to consider is NewsCorp Book Value/Share (MRQ): $14.5, while the stock market exchanges the company shares at NWS | News Corp Cl B $31.81 (0.36%) making the Market-to-Book Ratio 2.2 meaning investors are paying NewsCorp share actually double the net equity value of the company. Another financial ratio that highlights the overvaluation of NewsCorp’s stock price is the 47.62 P/E Ratio, multiplied with the EPS $0.47 does imply a stock price of $22.37, as a function of NewsCorp’s financial ratios. Considering a market price of $31.8 News (NWS) stock price overvaluation is about 42.39% as the company is trading at a premium across multiple valuation metrics, suggesting that it is highly regarded by investors with expectations for future growth. The balance sheet may not fully capture the value of intangible assets, like brand value, customer loyalty, or intellectual property, that investors might perceive as significant.

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NewsCorp’s ROE and ROI have improved but DCF models talk about lower profitability

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Return on Equity (ROE): ROE has generally improved over the years, reaching 4.36% in 2024, indicating an increase in profitability relative to shareholder equity. This suggests better efficiency in generating income from equity, with a significant jump in 2021 and 2024.

Return on Investment (ROI): ROI follows a similar trend to ROE, reaching 2.12% in 2024. The improvement from 2022 onwards suggests that News Corp has become more effective in utilizing its assets for generating profit.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuations for News Corp Baseline (3% growth, 8% discount rate): Estimated fair value is approximately $10,691 million. Deep Decline Forecast (1% growth, 12% discount rate): Estimated fair value drops significantly to approximately $5,893 million.

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Rupert Murdoch, the media magnate, and his global empire have long been associated with controversies and allegations of illegal activities, particularly involving News Corporation (News Corp) and affiliated media entities. Over the years, scandals and allegations of unethical practices have tarnished the reputation of Murdoch’s companies. Below is an overview of some of the most prominent scandals and alleged illegalities linked to Murdoch’s media empire:

Phone Hacking Scandal (News of the World)

One of the most infamous scandals involving Murdoch’s companies occurred in 2011, when the UK-based News of the World newspaper, a News Corp subsidiary, was exposed for engaging in widespread phone hacking. The publication reportedly hacked the phones of celebrities, politicians, and even ordinary citizens, often without consent, to obtain private information and produce sensational news stories. The scandal had major consequences for News Corp and raised questions about the ethical standards upheld by Murdoch’s media empire.

  • The Initial Revelations: Evidence emerged that reporters and private investigators working for News of the World had hacked the voicemail of Milly Dowler, a missing teenage girl who was later found murdered. The hacking of Dowler’s phone, which caused her family considerable distress, led to public outrage. It marked a turning point in the scandal, exposing the extent of the illegal activities involved.
  • Systematic Hacking of Public Figures: Further investigations uncovered that this was not an isolated incident but rather a common practice. Public figures, including celebrities, politicians, and even members of the British royal family, were targeted. These revelations showed that phone hacking was a systematic part of News of the World’s business operations, raising questions about editorial oversight and the involvement of senior management.
  • Legal Consequences and the Leveson Inquiry: The scandal led to multiple lawsuits, fines, and an investigation known as the Leveson Inquiry, a public inquiry into the ethics, culture, and practices of the press in the UK. The inquiry exposed deep-rooted issues within the tabloid industry, including the lack of accountability and a culture of impunity. Senior executives at News Corp, including Rebekah Brooks, the former editor of News of the World, faced legal scrutiny. Brooks and others were eventually acquitted, but the company was still held financially and reputationally accountable.
  • Closure of News of the World: Amidst growing public and political pressure, Murdoch made the decision to shut down News of the World after 168 years of publication. Despite the closure, the scandal severely damaged Murdoch’s reputation and cost the company hundreds of millions in legal fees and settlements.

Political Influence and Lobbying Allegations

Murdoch has often faced allegations of using his media companies to exert influence over political figures and government policies. The alleged goal has been to shape public opinion and foster a favourable environment for his business interests.

Relationships with Politicians: Over the years, Murdoch has been known to maintain close relationships with political figures in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. This association has led to allegations that he uses his media empire to support candidates and parties aligned with his interests. In the UK, his media outlets, including The Sun, have been known to endorse political candidates, sometimes changing stances to align with those in power.

Allegations of Favors and Quid Pro Quo Arrangements: There have been numerous claims that Murdoch’s support for certain politicians and policies was reciprocated with favourable treatment for his businesses. For example, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was accused of showing favouritism towards Murdoch’s interests in exchange for the endorsement of his publications. Although these accusations have not always led to legal action, they have contributed to an image of Murdoch as a media mogul who exercises disproportionate influence over politics.

Sexual Harassment Scandals at Fox News

Fox News, a major American news network owned by Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox (previously part of News Corp), has been plagued by sexual harassment scandals. These scandals not only damaged the network’s reputation but also highlighted systemic issues within its workplace culture.

  • Allegations Against Roger Ailes: Roger Ailes, the former chairman and CEO of Fox News, was accused of sexual harassment by several female employees, including prominent anchors like Gretchen Carlson and Megyn Kelly. Carlson’s lawsuit in 2016 exposed a toxic work environment at Fox News, leading to Ailes’ resignation. Subsequent revelations showed that Ailes had allegedly harassed multiple women over the years, with Fox News executives either unaware of the problem or actively covering it up.
  • Bill O’Reilly and Settlements: In addition to Ailes, Fox News host Bill O’Reilly faced multiple sexual harassment allegations. Reports revealed that Fox News had paid millions of dollars in settlements to silence accusers and prevent public exposure of O’Reilly’s misconduct. Despite these payments, O’Reilly continued to host a popular program on Fox News for years until the allegations became public and led to his termination.
  • Impact and Repercussions: These harassment cases led to significant financial and reputational damage for Fox News and highlighted a culture of sexism and harassment within the organization. The network was forced to overhaul its policies and leadership structure, though critics argue that the changes did not go far enough.

Accusations of Propaganda and Misinformation

Murdoch’s media outlets, particularly Fox News, have often been accused of spreading misinformation and promoting biased content, particularly in the United States. Allegations range from promoting conspiracy theories to misrepresenting facts in ways that favour particular political agendas.

Role in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: Fox News, one of Murdoch’s most influential assets, came under fire during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Accusations arose that the network had played a role in promoting misinformation about the integrity of the election, including claims of voter fraud. Fox News aired segments featuring individuals who questioned the legitimacy of the election, despite a lack of evidence. This contributed to public distrust in the electoral process and amplified divisions within the American electorate.

Promotion of Polarizing Narratives: Beyond elections, Murdoch’s outlets have been criticized for amplifying polarizing narratives and catering to specific ideological views. Critics argue that this approach has contributed to an increasingly divided political landscape and eroded the public’s trust in traditional news sources. Fox News, for instance, has been known for its conservative-leaning coverage, and some argue that this has influenced other media outlets to adopt similar partisan tones to compete.

Corporate Espionage and Intellectual Property Theft Allegations

News Corp and Murdoch’s other companies have faced allegations of corporate espionage and intellectual property theft over the years. These incidents have fueled accusations that Murdoch’s companies would go to great lengths to maintain their market dominance.

Pay-TV Piracy Scandal: One of the lesser-known scandals involved News Corp’s alleged involvement in pay-TV piracy during the 1990s. It was alleged that NDS Group, a subsidiary of News Corp, was involved in a scheme to undermine competitors in the pay-TV industry by facilitating the distribution of counterfeit smart cards. These cards allowed users to illegally access subscription channels, damaging rival companies’ revenue. News Corp denied the allegations, but the incident raised questions about its business practices and commitment to fair competition.

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