UNHCR Archives - Capital Market Journal

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW IF YOU RUN A BUSINESS IN THE UK #economy #econometrics

In this deep dive into the United Kingdom’s macroeconomic landscape, we utilise advanced econometric techniques to estimate the structural drivers of the UK economy. Drawing on data from 1989 Q1 ...through 2026 Q1, we explore the internal mechanics of inflation, growth, and monetary policy
#ukeconomy #macroeconomics #econometrics #DSGE #BayesianStatistics #BayesianInference #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicModeling #QuantitativeEconomics #DataScience #NewKeynesian #economicforecasting #stockmarket #οικονομικά
Listen for Free to The Podcast :
https://open.spotify.com/show/7puiUZxpDb7DT5rYOnIkmk?si=efcc3ea01f304b19
Read for Free and enjoy the Journal with the latest, most important facts you need to know about economics and global markets:
https://capitalmarketjournal.com/la-necessite-universelle-dune-declaration-universelle-des-droits-de-lhomme-plus-complete-et-amelioree/

Educational Disclaimer

This video is produced solely for educational and informational purposes. The content is designed to demystify financial concepts and explore analytical tools for a general audience interested in learning about market dynamics.
Important:
Not Financial Advice: The content presented here, including all data, analysis, models, and strategies discussed, is for illustrative and educational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product.
Seek Professional Guidance: All investment decisions involve unique risks and should be made in consultation with a qualified, independent financial professional, such as your private banker, financial advisor, or a licensed portfolio manager, who can assess your individual circumstances.
(By accessing this content, you acknowledge and agree that you are responsible for your own investment research and decisions)Show More

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW IF YOU RUN A BUSINESS IN THE UK #economy #econometrics

In this deep ...

Cosa e' il VAR ? Modelli Multivariabili dell'economia Italiana #var #italy #economy

This video ...

This video provides an in-depth empirical analysis of the Italian economic system through the lens of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The creator demonstrates how multivariable matrices can be used to ...understand the complex interactions between macro-variables such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. By utilizing data from the last 25 years, the video offers insights into how the public sector influences the private market and how specific shocks—like interest rate hikes—propagate through the economy over time. The "Crowding Out" Effect: The sources highlight that in Italy, more than 50% of the GDP is determined by public spending, which can lead to "crowding out," where the public sector absorbs liquidity that would otherwise benefit private industry and commerce. Monetary Impact: Using Granger causality tests, the video shows that inflation is a significant causal factor for GDP response and a primary driver for the Central Bank's decisions to raise interest rates. Labor Market Dynamics: The analysis reveals a "structural" problem with youth unemployment in Italy, noting that growth in the GDP does not always lead to a decrease in youth unemployment, which contradicts the standard expectations of Okun's Law. Structural Breaks: The creator warns that the 2020 lockdown caused a "structural break" in economic data, leading to large residual errors that make future projections more difficult and less precise.
00:00:00 – Introduction: The philosophy of "knowing that I know nothing" applied to macroeconomics. 00:01:45 – What is a VAR model? Explaining multivariable models, vectors, and system stability. 00:03:15 – The 5 key variables of the Italian economy and the Crowding Out effect. 00:05:00 – Technical Methodology: Determining the 8-quarter lag and minimizing residual errors. 07:30 – Impulse Response Functions: How the GDP responds to shocks in interest rates and inflation. 00:10:00 – Why economic growth in Italy does not necessarily trigger inflation. 00:13:15 – Granger Causality Tests: Identifying which variables statistically drive others. 00:17:20 – Correlation Analysis: Public spending, national debt, and the role of imports. 00:21:40 – The Financial Sector: How ECB rates impact corporate vs. household credit. 00:26:00 – Labor Market Analysis: Youth unemployment vs. total unemployment and the failure of Okun's Law. 00:32:30 – Household Sector: The relationship between salaries, consumption, and family net worth. 00:40:00 – Technical Challenges: Residual errors and structural breaks caused by the 2020 pandemic. 00:42:30 – Conclusion and Preview: Upcoming analysis on AS-AD models and potential GDP.
#Economics #Macroeconomics #Finance #Italy #EconomiaItaliana #PIL #VARmodel #Econometrics #GrangerCausality #Inflation #Unemployment #YouthUnemployment #PublicSpending #CrowdingOut #OkunLaw #StructuralBreak #Oikonomika #οικονομικά

Listen for Free to The Podcast :
https://open.spotify.com/show/7puiUZxpDb7DT5rYOnIkmk?si=efcc3ea01f304b19
Read for Free and enjoy the Journal with the latest, most important facts you need to know about economics and global markets:

https://capitalmarketjournal.com/la-necessite-universelle-dune-declaration-universelle-des-droits-de-lhomme-plus-complete-et-amelioree/

Educational Disclaimer

This video is produced solely for educational and informational purposes. The content is designed to demystify financial concepts and explore analytical tools for a general audience interested in learning about market dynamics.
Important:
Not Financial Advice: The content presented here, including all data, analysis, models, and strategies discussed, is for illustrative and educational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product.
Seek Professional Guidance: All investment decisions involve unique risks and should be made in consultation with a qualified, independent financial professional, such as your private banker, financial advisor, or a licensed portfolio manager, who can assess your individual circumstances.
(By accessing this content, you acknowledge and agree that you are responsible for your own investment research and decisions)Show More

SWEDEN’S DEMOCRACY DECAY: THE RISE OF XENOPHOBIA, ETHNO-NATIONALIST AUTHORITARIAN REGIME AND THE COMPLICITY OF EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS

Jun 16, 2026 capitalmarketsjournal

There exists a moment in the history of every democratic state when the erosion of liberty ceases to be a…

1951 GENEVA CONVENTION BRITISH RACISM BRITISH XENOPHOBIA CIVIL RIGHTS VIOLATIONS CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY HUMAN RIGHTS CONVENTION HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS ICC UNHCR UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS

OSINT ASSESSMENT: COORDINATED FAR-RIGHT DESTABILISATION ACTIVITIES IN THE UK, AIMED AT CAUSING A CONSTITUTIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LAW TREATY CRISIS

Jun 11, 2026 capitalmarketsjournal

THE JUNE 2026 BELFAST TRIGGER AND AMPLIFICATION NETWORK The events are well-documented. On 8 June 2026, Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old…

1951 GENEVA CONVENTION CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY ECHR ICC ICJ INTERNATIONAL LAW INTERNATIONAL TREATIES UNHCR WAR CRIMES

United States Criminality and Impunity: Historical-Sociological Perspective of United States Unaccountability and Impunity at the behest of International Law

Dec 7, 2025 capitalmarketsjournal

The United States emerged from World War II as a principal architect of the modern international legal order, including the…

CIVIL RIGHTS HUMAN RIGHTS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS Humanitarian Crisis INTERNATIONAL LAW INTERNATIONAL TREATIES UNHCR UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS

La Nécessité Universelle d’une Déclaration Universelle des Droits de l’Homme, Plus Complète et Améliorée

Sep 8, 2025 capitalmarketsjournal

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 10, 1948, stands as one…

1951 GENEVA CONVENTION 1951 GENEVA CONVETION DUBLIN CONVENTION ECHR HUMAN RIGHTS Humanitarian Crisis INTERNATIONAL LAW INTERNATIONAL TREATIES LAW OF TREATIES UNHCR VIENNA CONVENTION

Legal Framework for Asylum Seekers Repatriation: UK, France, and EU Options Under International Law

Aug 28, 2025 capitalmarketsjournal

The movement of asylum seekers from France to the UK presents complex legal challenges under international refugee law. Withstanding the…

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW IF YOU RUN A BUSINESS IN THE UK #economy #econometrics

SWEDEN’S DEMOCRACY DECAY: THE RISE OF XENOPHOBIA, ETHNO-NATIONALIST AUTHORITARIAN REGIME AND THE COMPLICITY OF EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS

OSINT ASSESSMENT: COORDINATED FAR-RIGHT DESTABILISATION ACTIVITIES IN THE UK, AIMED AT CAUSING A CONSTITUTIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LAW TREATY CRISIS

United States Criminality and Impunity: Historical-Sociological Perspective of United States Unaccountability and Impunity at the behest of International Law

La Nécessité Universelle d’une Déclaration Universelle des Droits de l’Homme, Plus Complète et Améliorée

Legal Framework for Asylum Seekers Repatriation: UK, France, and EU Options Under International Law

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