INFLATION Archives - Capital Market Journal

Why Can't the Fed Control Inflation Anymore? The Shocking Flatness of the Phillips Curve.

MUST WATCH VIDEO FOR ANYBODY
"We're living in a new economic paradigm where the old rules no longer apply. The Fed is flying partially blind, and understanding this flat Phillips Curve ...is key to understanding everything from your paycheck to your portfolio."
Why has the Federal Reserve struggled to control inflation in the 21st century? The answer lies in the shocking breakdown of one of economics' most fundamental relationships: the Phillips Curve.

In this data-driven analysis, I use sophisticated economic models and New Keynesian Phillips Curve to reveal why traditional inflation control methods have failed.

🔍 KEY FINDINGS:
• The Phillips Curve is FLATTER than ever (κ = 0.001-0.0447)
• The Fed SECRETLY ignores unemployment in policy decisions
• Hours and wages are the true labor market "shock absorbers"
• Current Fed policy shows extreme gradualism (98% interest rate smoothing)

📊 METHODOLOGY CHAPTERS:
00:01:00 INTRODUCTION, TECHNOLOGY, A.I. AUTOMATION AND LABOUR MARKETS (WHO WILL PAY INCOME TAX?)
00:10:00 INITIAL PHILLIPS CURVE LINEAR REGRESSION FINDINGS. UNEMPLOYMENT & INFLATION
00:20:00 POTENTIAL INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TARIFFS
00:30:00 NEW KEYNSIAN PHILLIPS CURVE AND DSGE MODELS, PARAMETERS AND MONETARY POLICY REACTION FUNCTION
00:53:00 M2 MONEY SUPPLY, CREDIT SPREAD AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
01:00:00 ROLLING CORRELATION FACTORS
01:14:00 OLS REGRESSION CONFIRMS INFLATION DYNAMICS DEPEND ON LAGGED INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, LESS ON UNEMPLOYMENT
01:24:00 MORE INFLATION FORECAST WITH DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK
01:32:00 VECM MODEL UNCOVERS THE PARTICULAR FEATURES OF THE LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS
01:55:00 APPLYING OUR FINDINGS INTO THE TAYLOR FORMULA, 2.3% or 3.1% ?
WHY CORPORATE BOND INVESTMENT GRADE YIELD DEFINES THE EFFECTIVE NEUTRAL LEVEL OF INTEREST RATE IN THE ECONOMY

This isn't just theoretical - these findings explain real-world phenomena like the "missing inflation" of the 2010s and the inflation surge of 2021-2022.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #PhillipsCurve #MonetaryPolicy #Economics
#DSGE #VARModel #VECM #EconomicModeling #Econometrics
#CentralBanking #JeromePowell #InterestRates #MacroPolicy
#Unemployment #EconomicAnalysis #Macroeconomics #EconomicData
#Inflation2024 #EconomicOutlook #Recession #SoftLanding
#FederalReserve #Inflation #PhillipsCurve #MonetaryPolicy #Economics
#CentralBanking #InterestRates #Macroeconomics
#EconomicData #Unemployment #EconomicAnalysis

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Why Can't the Fed Control Inflation Anymore? The Shocking Flatness of the Phillips Curve.

MUST WATCH ...

The Ultimate Portfolio Hedge? I Did Backtest Gold & Sector ETFs to Find Out #gold

I spent weeks ...

I spent weeks backtesting 20 years of data (2005-2025) on 35 major sector ETFs and Gold (using the spot price and GLD ETF) to find out once and for all: ...Does adding gold actually improve your risk-adjusted returns, or does it just drag down your performance?
📊 What You'll Learn in This Video:
00:00:02
The session introduces a detailed exploration of various ETFs popular among retail investors, including the S&P 500, TLT, GLD, and QQQ. It covers extensive data analysis on these ETFs alongside time series data for major economic sectors, with a focus on revealing interesting findings related to gold and sector investments.
00:01:11
Gold Price Rally
The significant rally in gold prices has raised eyebrows, with major investment banks predicting targets as high as $4,000 to $4,600 per ounce. This video serves solely for educational purposes, emphasizing the importance of conducting personal research and consulting with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
00:01:55
ETF Performance Analysis
The analysis highlights that the QQQ ETF has shown the highest cumulative returns, while the TLT ETF, representing long-duration treasury bonds, has lagged due to rising interest rates. Gold has emerged as a strong performer, suggesting potential as a hedge against market liquidity distress and inflation, especially in a low liquidity environment where it can also yield positive returns.
00:04:39
Correlation with Gold
Gold displays an inverse correlation with the S&P 500, indicating that when stock prices decline, gold often appreciates, making it a potential protective asset during market sell-offs. Analysis of various ETFs reveals that while tech sector ETFs like QQQ and XLK are highly correlated with the market, gold maintains a neutral beta with attractive returns and lower volatility compared to these tech funds. Furthermore, the challenges facing long-duration bonds highlight the shifting dynamics of investment preferences amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.
00:28:16
Market Liquidity and Gold
Market liquidity, often measured through bond ETFs or the S&P 500, shows an inverse correlation with gold prices, suggesting that gold can act as a refuge during liquidity stress in the stock market. Historical data reveals that gold has provided positive returns in such times and has outperformed the S&P 500 about 50% of the time, reinforcing its value as a hedging asset against market volatility. Analysis also illustrates that while gold experiences more positive returns when market liquidity contracts, it can also face sell-offs under extreme liquidity crunches.
01:24:13
Portfolio Construction Strategies
Various portfolio structures, including equal weight, tangency, risk parity, minimum variance, and max diversification, were analyzed using 35 ETFs, demonstrating that diversification typically yields better returns, averaging 10.3%, while the minimum variance portfolio performed the worst at about 4%. The tangency portfolio achieved the optimal Sharpe ratio, utilizing a simpler selection of just five ETFs, while the max diversification portfolio was noted for its lack of true diversity. Overall, effective portfolio construction seems to require careful analysis and advice from a financial expert.
01:27:32
Exploring various portfolio strategies, the discussion emphasizes the importance of risk-adjusted returns, particularly highlighting the tangency portfolio and the risk parity portfolio as optimal choices. The analysis incorporates multifactor models and demonstrates how dynamic allocation can enhance performance compared to traditional static strategies. Ultimately, portfolios that adjust for beta tend to yield superior expected returns, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach to asset allocation.

⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. All investing involves risk. Please do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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#portfolio #hedge #assetallocation #gold #beta #riskmanagement #investingstrategy #MPT #goldbug #rationalinvestingShow More

Has the UK Economy Broken Down? The Strange Case of Sticky Inflation and low growth

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Current Economic Framework of the UK Government Finances and Debt Inflationary Pressures and Forecasts Here is a line chart showing…

A.I. AUTOMATION GUNTHER ANDERS INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATION LABOUR MARKET MONETARY POLICY PHILLIPS CURVE TECHNOLOGY

Impact of Technology on the Labor Market and Taxation

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The Flattening of the Phillips Curve Alternative Drivers of Inflation Macroeconomic Models and Parameters Central Bank Monetary Policy and Its…

INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATION INFLATION FORECAST INFLATION VOLATILITY

Challenges in Modeling Tariff Pass-Through

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Here is a flowchart illustrating the direct tariff pass-through effect: Modelling Approaches and Forecasts Sector-Specific Tariff Impacts Monetary Policy Implications…

ENERGY PRICES ENERGY SUPPLY GEOPOLITICAL RISK GEOPOLITICS INFLATION

IRAN INSTABILITY REQUIRES AYATOLLAH REGIME TO TAKE SAFE CORRIDOR OFFER FROM RUSSIA

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The Persian Gulf area has long been a volatile region, and the ongoing instability in Iran underscores a Middle East…

ENERGY PRICES ENERGY SUPPLY GEOPOLITICAL RISK GEOPOLITICS INFLATION

Middle East Geopolitical Dynamics and Regional Power Structures, why the US aims at reinstating the Shah Regime in Iran

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Iran’s Challenges and Economic Pressures Iran faces unprecedented economic and social pressures that have significantly impacted its domestic stability. On…

BANK OF ENGLAND CORE INFLATION CPI INFLATION CPI INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DERIVATIVES RISK GILTs Market Freeze INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATION VOLATILITY AND MARKET RISKS

Rising Inflation in the UK: Is the BoE Losing Credibility?

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FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FISCAL PRESSURE FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT WAGE SHOCK INFLATION

Government Wage Shocks: A Fiscal Trap with Long-Term Consequences

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The question of how governments should deploy fiscal tools to stimulate economic growth or address crises has long been debated.…

FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY INFLATION UK GILTS YIELD CURVE VOLATILITY AND MARKET RISKS

UK GILT yield curve at risk of sustained higher volatility

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From a technical standpoint, the bond market reaction function to the Autumn Budget 2024 has been similar to the mini-budget…

ASSETS PRICES HYPERINFLATION FEDERAL RESERVE GROWTH MEANS PRICES GROWTH INFLATION MONETARISM CONTRADDICTION IN TERMS PRICE STABILITY UNEMPLOYMENT

4-Week Average Jobless Claims increase to 240000, expect higher Unemployment

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United States 4-week average jobless claims have increased to 240,000 from the previous 238,000, indicating that the U.S. economy is…

ARIMA MODEL ECONOMETRICS RESEARCH GARCH MODEL INFLATION MACROECONOMICS RESEARCH TIMESERIES VOLATILITY UNITED STATES ECONOMY FORECAST

Econometrics forecast research about USA macroeconomic timeseries

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In the quest for clues about how the global economy could perform in the coming quarters, additional econometrics research has…

ARCH ESTIMATING INFLATION VOLATILITY GARCH MODELS HISTORICAL VOLATILITY INFLATION

Estimating volatility of Inflation metrics, implementing MSE volatility, ARCH GARCH HS comparison

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Study of Inflation metrics volatility has been started with estimating the 3/6/9/12 months volatility extracted form Mean Squared Error in…

COMMODITIES PRICES ENERGY PRICES INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATION

The Price Surge: How Commodities, Energy, and Deficits Fuel Inflation (and What You Can Do About It)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APmqaMR3UV4

INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATION MONETARTY POLICY STAGFLATION UNANCHORING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

What do we do with a drunken sailor?

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On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations stand at 6.1% On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations have risen to 5.6% in…

Economic growth FISCAL POLICY INFLATION

UK SPRING BUDGET, ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY

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The big idea coming from the UK Exchequer Spring Budget, it’s a rough measure of Capex that won’t produce what’s…

Why Can't the Fed Control Inflation Anymore? The Shocking Flatness of the Phillips Curve.

Has the UK Economy Broken Down? The Strange Case of Sticky Inflation and low growth

Impact of Technology on the Labor Market and Taxation

Challenges in Modeling Tariff Pass-Through

IRAN INSTABILITY REQUIRES AYATOLLAH REGIME TO TAKE SAFE CORRIDOR OFFER FROM RUSSIA

Middle East Geopolitical Dynamics and Regional Power Structures, why the US aims at reinstating the Shah Regime in Iran

Rising Inflation in the UK: Is the BoE Losing Credibility?

Government Wage Shocks: A Fiscal Trap with Long-Term Consequences

UK GILT yield curve at risk of sustained higher volatility

4-Week Average Jobless Claims increase to 240000, expect higher Unemployment

Econometrics forecast research about USA macroeconomic timeseries

Estimating volatility of Inflation metrics, implementing MSE volatility, ARCH GARCH HS comparison

The Price Surge: How Commodities, Energy, and Deficits Fuel Inflation (and What You Can Do About It)

What do we do with a drunken sailor?

UK SPRING BUDGET, ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY

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