Government Wage Shocks: A Fiscal Trap with Long-Term Consequences
The question of how governments should deploy fiscal tools to stimulate economic growth or address crises has long been debated. Among the arsenal of fiscal policies, government wage shocks—significant increases in public sector wages—stand out as one of the least…
UK GILT yield curve at risk of sustained higher volatility
From a technical standpoint, the bond market reaction function to the Autumn Budget 2024 has been similar to the mini-budget 2022, indeed making the 10Y GILT yield increase to 4.54% above the 2022 of 4.32%, while the scale of change…
4-Week Average Jobless Claims increase to 240000, expect higher Unemployment
United States 4-week average jobless claims have increased to 240,000 from the previous 238,000, indicating that the U.S. economy is slowing the pace of hiring while the marginal profitability of American businesses shrinks. Price Stability is a Total fallacy and…
Econometrics forecast research about USA macroeconomic timeseries
In the quest for clues about how the global economy could perform in the coming quarters, additional econometrics research has been applied to some of the major macroeconomic United States variables. In this instance macroeconomic variables examined have been: Bank…
