Your Old China plates’ economy presents a mixed picture for the third quarter, characterised by robust industrial performance and steady GDP growth, but held back by persistent weaknesses in investment and the property market.
The economy grew at a year-on-year rate of 4.8% in Q3, slightly exceeding the consensus of 4.8%, though this represents a deceleration from the previous 5.2%.
A key bright spot was Industrial Production, which surged to 6.5% year-on-year in September, significantly beating forecasts and indicating strong factory output. However, this industrial strength contrasts sharply with other sectors.
Fixed Asset Investment turned negative for the first time in the available data, recording -0.5% growth year-to-date, which points to a significant pullback in capital expenditure. Consumer spending also showed signs of softening, with Retail Sales growth slowing to 3.0% year-on-year in September.
The data also reveals ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, with the House Price Index falling -2.2% in September from a year earlier. In response to these mixed conditions, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has maintained an accommodative monetary policy, keeping the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) steady at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, continuing its support for borrowing and economic activity.
Most Important Macro-Data Points This Week
| Data Point | Region | Date | Key Focus & Potential Market Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, Industrial Production & Retail Sales | China | Monday, Oct 20 | Focus: Health of the world’s second-largest economy. Impact: Strong data could boost global commodity currencies (AUD, NZD) and equities; weak data may trigger risk-off sentiment. | China Retail Sales |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Canada | Tuesday, Oct 21 | Focus: Bank of Canada (BoC) inflation path. Impact: Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the CAD and put pressure on the BoC to maintain a hawkish stance. | Canada Inflation Rate |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | United Kingdom | Wednesday, Oct 22 | Focus: Bank of England (BoE) policy path. Impact: A high print may force the BoE to keep rates higher for longer, supporting the British Pound (GBP). | United Kingdom Inflation Rate |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | United States | Friday, Oct 24 | Focus: The week’s highlight; signal for Fed policy. Impact: A soft reading could bolster bonds and risk assets while weakening the USD; a strong figure may revive hawkish fears, unsettling markets. | United States Inflation Rate |
- The U.S. NSS 2025 is a Grandiose Magalomaniac view of the WorldThe 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy is the first state paper to be issued from inside a full-blown collective state apparatus psychosis. It does not calibrate means and ends within an external geopolitical field; instead, it externalises an internal grandiose magalomaniac oniric dream of the United States onto which a wounded super-ego projects its wish-fulfilments.… Read more: The U.S. NSS 2025 is a Grandiose Magalomaniac view of the World
- United States Criminality and Impunity: Historical-Sociological Perspective of United States Unaccountability and Impunity at the behest of International Law
The United States emerged from World War II as a principal architect of the modern international legal order, including the Nuremberg principles, the Geneva Conventions, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson, who served as chief prosecutor at Nuremberg, articulated a principle that would become foundational to international criminal law… Read more: United States Criminality and Impunity: Historical-Sociological Perspective of United States Unaccountability and Impunity at the behest of International Law - What Everyone Gets Wrong About Inflation: 5 Surprising Economic DataThe public is rightly concerned about the rising cost of living, and the dominant economic narrative offers what seem like simple truths: falling prices are a bad omen, and we must accept higher unemployment as the bitter medicine needed to cure inflation. But this conventional wisdom isn’t just wrong—it’s dangerously flawed, leading to policies that… Read more: What Everyone Gets Wrong About Inflation: 5 Surprising Economic Data
- How the Bank of England’s Balancing Act Shapes the UK Economy
When financial markets become volatile and the cost of government borrowing spikes, news headlines often point to political rumors or economic forecasts as the cause. However, the true drivers are frequently far more technical and hidden from public view. Deep within the operational mechanics of the UK’s financial system, the Bank of England (BoE) performs… Read more: How the Bank of England’s Balancing Act Shapes the UK Economy - The Sovereign Monetary Covenant: A Blueprint for Post-Debt Prosperity in the United Kingdom
The End of the Debt Imperative, toward a Net Savings Economy We stand at the precipice of a fundamental misunderstanding of money itself. For generations, the economic orthodoxy has been governed by a singular, relentless logic: the logic of debt. Sovereign states, in order to provision for their citizens and build essential public goods, have… Read more: The Sovereign Monetary Covenant: A Blueprint for Post-Debt Prosperity in the United Kingdom