Government Wage Shocks: A Fiscal Trap with Long-Term Consequences
The question of how governments should deploy fiscal tools to stimulate economic growth or address crises has long been debated. Among the arsenal of fiscal policies, government wage shocks—significant increases in public sector wages—stand out as one of the least…
UK GILT yield curve at risk of sustained higher volatility
From a technical standpoint, the bond market reaction function to the Autumn Budget 2024 has been similar to the mini-budget 2022, indeed making the 10Y GILT yield increase to 4.54% above the 2022 of 4.32%, while the scale of change…
Keep Borrowing and eventually, Britain’s Debt Black Hole will become bigger
The nature of Black Holes in astrophysics and quantum mechanics is still a mystery and an area of intense research and observation globally, but the nature of these massive interstellar gravitational masses still represents an unsolved mystery to mankind. The…
Italian Government -8.8% Q1 fiscal deficit seems way out of order
The quarterly non-financial sector account summary of Italy’s General Government account gives a brief concise framework of Italy’s public finances and the main economic factors. What caught the eye of keen observers has been the out-of-the-ordinary Q1 fiscal deficit balance…
