Fat Tail Risk Archives - Capital Market Journal

The Importance Of Inflation Expectations & Borrowing Rates for American Households #inflation

In this video, we'll delve into details with a comprehensive macro-econometric analysis of the United States economy spanning the years 2001 to 2025. By integrating vast datasets from the Bureau ...of Labour Statistics and the Federal Reserve, the research evaluates the shifting dynamics between inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. We'll see sophisticated DSGE modelling and Vector Autoregression to test the stability of the Phillips Curve and the effectiveness of the Taylor Rule. Their findings suggest a weakening trade-off between employment/unemployment, aggregate supply slack and price stability, indicating a flatter Phillips Curve in recent years. Ultimately, the analysis provides data-driven policy recommendations that emphasise the importance of inflation expectations and adaptive monetary strategies in a persistent, low-interest-rate environment.
Introduction: The 2026 Job Market and "Ghost Jobs" [00:00:00]
The Traditional Phillips Curve vs. Modern Reality [00:03:00]
Cultural Drivers of Inflation Expectations [00:04:00]
Geopolitical Shocks and Price Persistence [00:10:00]
The Ineffectiveness of Managing Aggregate Demand [00:17:00]
Central Bank Responses and the Taylor Rule [00:22:00]
Corporate Bond Rates: The "Real" Economic Indicator [00:35:00]
Advanced Modelling: DSGE and Bayesian VAR [00:40:00]
#stockmarket #οικονομικά #macroeconomics #phillipscurve #econometrics #jobmarket #ghostjobs #careeradvice #unemployment #inflationexpectations #ForwardLooking #supplychain #federalreserve #privatecredit #corporatebonds #financialcrisis
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https://open.spotify.com/show/7puiUZxpDb7DT5rYOnIkmk?si=efcc3ea01f304b19
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The Importance Of Inflation Expectations & Borrowing Rates for American Households #inflation

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