Lebanon’s social and economic struggle and instability have been a feature of the country for some decades, and the Beirut dock incident plunged once again the country into a profound economic crisis, exploited by Hezbollah extremist groups, that are destabilizing militia in the region. Among the reasons for continuous instability in Lebanon has been the lack of implementation of the Taif Agreement, while the Shia Hezbollah Militia have taken over most parts of Lebanon’s civil society enforcing a tight Sharija rule Theocratic regime, that threatens Lebanese civil society, Lebanon’ Parliamentary Sovereignty, and wider instability in the region.
The Taif Agreement sought to enhance and balance Lebanon’s political system, establishing a foundation for reconciliation, coexistence, and state sovereignty, ensuring equal representation across Lebanese society.
Political Reforms and Power-Sharing
- Rebalancing Executive Power: The agreement reformed Lebanon’s sectarian-based political system, which had previously given disproportionate power to the Maronite Christian President. It reduced the powers of the presidency and reallocated executive authority between the President (a Maronite Christian) and the Prime Minister (a Sunni Muslim).
- The President retained significant influence but was now required to consult with the Prime Minister on key decisions, such as forming a government.
- The Prime Minister, appointed by the President, became the head of government, responsible for overseeing the cabinet’s functioning and policy implementation.
- Equal Representation in Parliament: The Taif Agreement changed the structure of the Lebanese Parliament by reallocating parliamentary seats. It established equal representation between Christians and Muslims, with a 50:50 ratio, whereas the previous system favoured Christians. This adjustment aimed to reflect Lebanon’s demographic changes and promote sectarian balance.
- National Pact Principles: The agreement reaffirmed the principles of the National Pact of 1943, which established Lebanon as a multi-confessional republic, ensuring that key government positions would continue to be distributed among the various religious communities:
- The President would be a Maronite Christian.
- The Prime Minister would be a Sunni Muslim.
- The Speaker of Parliament would be a Shia Muslim.
State Sovereignty and Disarmament
- Disbanding Militias: The agreement called for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias, emphasizing that only the Lebanese state should possess arms. This provision targeted the various sectarian and Palestinian militias active during the civil war. However, Hezbollah was later permitted to retain its weapons under the pretext of resistance against Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon.
- Strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces: The agreement emphasized building up the Lebanese Army as the sole legitimate defense force, responsible for maintaining internal security and defending against external threats.
- Sovereignty: The agreement underscored Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence, calling for the withdrawal of foreign forces. While it initially provided a framework for the Syrian military presence in Lebanon, it also set the stage for their eventual withdrawal.
Restoring State Authority
- Decentralization: The agreement proposed administrative decentralization to improve governance. It called for the establishment of elected local councils to enhance regional development and public service delivery.
- Lebanon’s Identity: It affirmed Lebanon’s identity as an “Arab country” and a founding member of the Arab League, while recognizing its unique cultural diversity.
- Return of Displaced Persons: It addressed the issue of internally displaced persons by emphasizing the need for their safe return to their homes and compensation for losses incurred during the war.
Extremism and Theocratic regime have breached the Taif Agreement plunging Lebanon into crisis
Shia Militia Hezbollah in Lebanon’s instability and economic crisis have imposed their rule as a para-military militia with the support of Iran and Syria:
- Hezbollah’s military capabilities, supported by Iran and Syria, have allowed it to exert significant pressure on both domestic and regional opponents. Its armed wing remains one of the most powerful in Lebanon, overshadowing the Lebanese Armed Forces.
- Hezbollah has gained substantial political leverage through its representation in Lebanon’s parliament and government. It has formed alliances with various political factions to ensure its dominance in decision-making processes.
Breaching the Taif Agreement
Hezbollah’s actions have raised concerns about its compliance with the Taif Agreement’s principles:
- Violation of Sectarian Balance: The Taif Agreement was designed to ensure political power was shared equitably among Lebanon’s sects. Hezbollah’s dominance, however, has skewed this balance, leading to the perception of a Shia-centric governance structure. This undermines the agreement’s intent to provide fair representation for all sects.
- Militia Control: Despite the Taif Agreement’s call for disarmament, Hezbollah’s military capabilities remain intact and operational. The group’s armed wing operates independently of the Lebanese state’s control, challenging the agreement’s stipulation of a unified security apparatus.
- Sovereignty and Independence: Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran and Syria has led to questions about Lebanon’s sovereignty. The group’s external alliances and military engagements often supersede Lebanese national interests, further straining the country’s independence.
Theocratic Shia Dominance
Hezbollah’s influence has fostered an environment where Shia interests are prioritized, potentially marginalizing other sects. This shift has been characterized by:
- Political and Religious Leadership: Hezbollah’s leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, wield significant power, blending political authority with religious leadership. This fusion of roles contributes to a theocratic governance style that prioritizes Shia interests.
- Institutional Control: Hezbollah’s control over various state institutions and its ability to influence national policies has reinforced its dominance, reducing the role of other political actors in decision-making processes.
The role of Lebanon Resistance Movements and Opposition in ousting Hezbollah paramilitary dictatorship
In response to Hezbollah’s dominance, several resistance movements and political factions have mobilized to challenge the group’s control:
- March 14 Alliance: This coalition, comprising various political parties and groups opposed to Syrian influence and Hezbollah’s hegemony, advocates for restoring Lebanon’s political balance and enforcing the Taif Agreement’s principles.
- Civil Society Groups: Numerous civil society organizations and activists push for greater transparency, accountability, and fair representation in Lebanon’s political system, aiming to counteract Hezbollah’s influence.
In Lebanon, various movements oppose Hezbollah’s influence and seek to reshape the country’s political and social dynamics. These groups are diverse in their ideology, methods of resistance, and goals. They range from established political parties to emerging civil society and secular movements.
Established Political Parties Opposing Hezbollah
These political parties have deep roots in Lebanon’s political scene and often represent specific sectarian groups. They oppose Hezbollah’s military capabilities and its intervention in regional conflicts, arguing that it undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty and neutrality.
The Lebanese Forces (LF)
- Leader: Samir Geagea
- Background: The Lebanese Forces (LF) originated as a Christian militia during the Lebanese Civil War and later transitioned into a political party. The LF opposes Hezbollah’s parallel military power, its alliance with Iran, and its involvement in the Syrian conflict.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Political Advocacy: The LF actively calls for Lebanese sovereignty and insists on the disarmament of Hezbollah in favor of a state-controlled military.
- Alliances: The LF often aligns with other parties (e.g., the Kataeb Party, Future Movement) to form a political front against Hezbollah’s dominance.
- Public Discourse: Samir Geagea and other LF officials frequently use media channels to criticize Hezbollah’s interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs and promote a narrative of national sovereignty.
The Kataeb Party (Phalange)
- Leader: Sami Gemayel
- Background: The Kataeb Party, also known as the Phalange, is a historic Christian party. It criticizes Hezbollah’s weapons and political influence, arguing that they violate Lebanon’s sovereignty and state authority.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Policy and Legislation: The Kataeb Party advocates for legislation that strengthens the Lebanese state and military while condemning Hezbollah’s military and political activities.
- Public Campaigns: Party members, particularly Sami Gemayel, use public platforms to highlight Hezbollah’s influence and advocate for reforms that would reduce sectarian tensions and bolster state institutions.
The Future Movement
- Leader: Saad Hariri (although he suspended his role in politics in 2022)
- Background: The Future Movement represents Lebanon’s Sunni community and has long opposed Hezbollah’s military dominance and its alliance with Iran. It was a central part of the March 14 Alliance, a coalition formed in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s assassination to oppose Syrian influence and Hezbollah’s power.
- Resistance Tactics:
- National Sovereignty: The movement pushes for the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions, particularly Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.
- Diplomatic Pressure: The Future Movement often seeks support from international allies, particularly in the Arab world and the West, to apply diplomatic pressure on Hezbollah and its backers, mainly Iran and Syria.
The Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
- Leader: Walid Jumblatt
- Background: The PSP, a Druze-led party, has had a fluctuating stance on Hezbollah. It criticizes Hezbollah’s military actions, particularly its involvement in the Syrian war and its influence over Lebanese politics.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Political Maneuvering: The PSP advocates for Lebanon’s neutrality in regional conflicts and has at times aligned with both pro- and anti-Hezbollah forces, depending on the political climate.
- Media and Discourse: Walid Jumblatt uses media outlets to voice concerns about Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon and its impact on the country’s stability.
Civil Society and Secular Movements
Since the widespread anti-government protests of October 2019 (the “Thawra” or “Revolution”), new, non-sectarian resistance movements have emerged. These groups focus on systemic change, rejecting the sectarian power-sharing system that Hezbollah is a part of.
October 17 (Thawra) Movement
- Background: This movement arose during the nationwide protests that began on October 17, 2019, in response to economic mismanagement, corruption, and sectarian politics. It includes various secular, leftist, and non-sectarian organizations and individuals.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Protests: The movement organizes mass protests and demonstrations demanding an end to corruption, the dismantling of sectarian political structures, and the building of a secular, democratic state.
- Awareness Campaigns: Activists use social media and independent media outlets to raise awareness about corruption and the negative effects of sectarianism, including Hezbollah’s role in maintaining the status quo.
- Electoral Participation: Some groups within the movement aim to challenge traditional parties, including Hezbollah, through participation in parliamentary elections by forming non-sectarian, reformist candidate lists.
Leftist and Secular Groups
- Background: Various leftist groups, such as the Lebanese Communist Party and other secular organizations, have a history of resisting both sectarian politics and foreign influence in Lebanon. They oppose Hezbollah’s alignment with Iran and Syria, arguing that it undermines Lebanese independence.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Ideological Opposition: These groups criticize Hezbollah’s sectarian nature and its use of religion in politics. They advocate for a secular state where the Lebanese Armed Forces are the sole legitimate military force.
- Grassroots Organizing: Leftist and secular movements work at the grassroots level, organizing community-based initiatives and labor movements to promote social justice and political reform.
Independent Media and Intellectuals
- Background: Independent journalists, writers, and public intellectuals in Lebanon often use media platforms to criticize Hezbollah’s influence and advocate for democratic reforms.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Exposing Corruption: Independent media outlets publish investigations exposing Hezbollah’s involvement in smuggling, financial crimes, and political corruption.
- Public Discourse: Intellectuals and academics participate in debates, publish articles, and engage in public discourse to challenge Hezbollah’s narrative and promote the principles of state sovereignty and non-sectarianism.
Student and Youth Movements
- Background: Lebanese universities have been a breeding ground for student activism, particularly after the 2019 protests. Many students oppose the country’s sectarian political system, including Hezbollah’s role in it.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Student Elections: Student movements at universities like the American University of Beirut (AUB) and the Lebanese American University (LAU) have formed non-sectarian coalitions that compete against traditional sectarian student groups affiliated with political parties, including Hezbollah.
- Awareness and Mobilization: Students organize discussions, forums, and awareness campaigns that promote secularism, civil rights, and political reforms.
Resistance Within the Shia Community
- Background: Despite Hezbollah’s strong support base within the Shia community, some Shia intellectuals, activists, and political groups oppose Hezbollah’s monopoly on Shia political representation.
- Groups:
- The Shia Opposition Movement: Includes individuals and groups like the Lebanese Option Party (Hizb al-Khiyar al-Lubnani) led by Ahmad al-Asaad, who criticize Hezbollah’s grip on the Shia community, arguing for a more diverse political representation that prioritizes Lebanese sovereignty over regional allegiances.
- Resistance Tactics:
- Alternative Political Voices: Shia opposition figures promote alternative political ideologies that prioritize Lebanese national interests and criticize Hezbollah’s involvement in regional conflicts, such as the war in Syria.
- Community Engagement: Engaging with Shia communities, these groups advocate for change through dialogue, civic initiatives, and participation in elections.
The sabotage of Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies represents a potential strategic action by Lebanese civil movements to weaken the group’s operational capabilities and disrupt its control. Such acts of resistance, while highly controversial, could undermine Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure and hinder its ability to coordinate effectively. For this approach to be part of a successful strategy to oust Hezbollah, it would require broader support from a coalition of international allies, including the United States. Additionally, this international backing would help ensure that the removal of Hezbollah contributes to achieving parliamentary stability and economic recovery in Lebanon. In aligning efforts to weaken Hezbollah’s hold and oust the Shia militia out of Lebanon, the coalition could play a pivotal role in creating more stable conditions for the future of Lebanon and all segments of Lebanon’s civil society.
