VaR Forecasting Archives - Capital Market Journal

Cosa e' il VAR ? Modelli Multivariabili dell'economia Italiana #var #italy #economy

This video provides an in-depth empirical analysis of the Italian economic system through the lens of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The creator demonstrates how multivariable matrices can be used to ...understand the complex interactions between macro-variables such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. By utilizing data from the last 25 years, the video offers insights into how the public sector influences the private market and how specific shocks—like interest rate hikes—propagate through the economy over time. The "Crowding Out" Effect: The sources highlight that in Italy, more than 50% of the GDP is determined by public spending, which can lead to "crowding out," where the public sector absorbs liquidity that would otherwise benefit private industry and commerce. Monetary Impact: Using Granger causality tests, the video shows that inflation is a significant causal factor for GDP response and a primary driver for the Central Bank's decisions to raise interest rates. Labor Market Dynamics: The analysis reveals a "structural" problem with youth unemployment in Italy, noting that growth in the GDP does not always lead to a decrease in youth unemployment, which contradicts the standard expectations of Okun's Law. Structural Breaks: The creator warns that the 2020 lockdown caused a "structural break" in economic data, leading to large residual errors that make future projections more difficult and less precise.
00:00:00 – Introduction: The philosophy of "knowing that I know nothing" applied to macroeconomics. 00:01:45 – What is a VAR model? Explaining multivariable models, vectors, and system stability. 00:03:15 – The 5 key variables of the Italian economy and the Crowding Out effect. 00:05:00 – Technical Methodology: Determining the 8-quarter lag and minimizing residual errors. 07:30 – Impulse Response Functions: How the GDP responds to shocks in interest rates and inflation. 00:10:00 – Why economic growth in Italy does not necessarily trigger inflation. 00:13:15 – Granger Causality Tests: Identifying which variables statistically drive others. 00:17:20 – Correlation Analysis: Public spending, national debt, and the role of imports. 00:21:40 – The Financial Sector: How ECB rates impact corporate vs. household credit. 00:26:00 – Labor Market Analysis: Youth unemployment vs. total unemployment and the failure of Okun's Law. 00:32:30 – Household Sector: The relationship between salaries, consumption, and family net worth. 00:40:00 – Technical Challenges: Residual errors and structural breaks caused by the 2020 pandemic. 00:42:30 – Conclusion and Preview: Upcoming analysis on AS-AD models and potential GDP.
#Economics #Macroeconomics #Finance #Italy #EconomiaItaliana #PIL #VARmodel #Econometrics #GrangerCausality #Inflation #Unemployment #YouthUnemployment #PublicSpending #CrowdingOut #OkunLaw #StructuralBreak #Oikonomika #οικονομικά

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Educational Disclaimer

This video is produced solely for educational and informational purposes. The content is designed to demystify financial concepts and explore analytical tools for a general audience interested in learning about market dynamics.
Important:
Not Financial Advice: The content presented here, including all data, analysis, models, and strategies discussed, is for illustrative and educational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product.
Seek Professional Guidance: All investment decisions involve unique risks and should be made in consultation with a qualified, independent financial professional, such as your private banker, financial advisor, or a licensed portfolio manager, who can assess your individual circumstances.
(By accessing this content, you acknowledge and agree that you are responsible for your own investment research and decisions)Show More

Cosa e' il VAR ? Modelli Multivariabili dell'economia Italiana #var #italy #economy

This video ...

L'Economia In Italia ? 5 Parametri DSGE che la BCE Non Ti Mostra #italy #economy #ecb

🚨 Scopri i ...

🚨 Scopri i parametri strutturali che governano l'economia italiana: dai modelli DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) alla New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC).
In questo episodio di OIKONOMIKA, analizziamo in profondità il ...sistema economico italiano attraverso l'uso di modelli macroeconomici avanzati e dati ufficiali della BCE e di Eurostat. Scopriremo perché alcuni parametri, spesso non mostrati dalle istituzioni, sono fondamentali per comprendere la crescita, l'inflazione e la rigidità del mercato italiano.
⏱️ TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:10 Intro: Perché l'inflazione "aderisce" all'economia italiana?
00:02:30 - La Curva di Phillips e l'Unemployment Gap Discussione sulla scala mobile e analisi dell'interazione tra tasso di disoccupazione e inflazione,. I
00:06:45 - Output Gap e il Filtro Hodrick-Prescott Spiegazione del PIL potenziale calcolato con il parametro lambda di Odric e Prescott,. Vediamo come l'economia italiana possa crescere al di sopra del potenziale senza necessariamente generare inflazione, a causa di una curva di correlazione quasi piatta,.
00:09:15 - Shock Esogeni e Autocorrelazione dei Prezzi Perché l'inflazione in Italia è determinata da fattori esterni (energia, geopolitica) e dalla volatilità stessa piuttosto che dal PIL o dall'occupazione,. I prezzi attuali tendono a essere fortemente influenzati dai livelli dei mesi precedenti.
00:11:30 - Efficacia della BCE e Trasmissione Monetaria Analisi della reazione tra tassi di interesse e inflazione.
00:15:45 - Il Moltiplicatore Fiscale e il Debito Pubblico Viene stimato un moltiplicatore fiscale di 0,21, il che significa che per ogni 1% di stimolo fiscale, il PIL generato è solo dello 0,20%. Questo rende lo shock fiscale poco ideale per la crescita italiana, accumulando invece debito,.
00:18:20 - I Parametri DSGE: Beta e la Pazienza del Consumatore Analisi del parametro Beta (0,95),
00:20:15 - Rigidità dei Prezzi (Theta) e Trade-off PIL-Inflazione (K) Il parametro K (0,01) conferma l'assenza di un legame significativo tra crescita del PIL e prezzi. Il parametro Theta (0,73) evidenzia una forte rigidità e inelasticità dei prezzi nel sistema produttivo italiano,.
00:22:30 - Analisi di come la BCE reagisce all'inflazione (parametro 1,52) e al PIL (parametro 0,68).
00:28:15 - Shock Tecnologico e Funzione Cobb-Douglas
00:34:00 - Utilizzo della New Keynesian Phillips CurveIUnit Labor Cost (ULC) è quasi nullo, indicando che i salari non sono un fattore che spinge l'inflazione in Italia,.
00:38:15 - Statistiche Chiave (1999-2025) e la Questione Salariale Negli ultimi 25 anni, la crescita media del PIL è stata solo dello 0,63%, a fronte di un debito medio del 124%,. L'autore sostiene che per aumentare strutturalmente il PIL è necessario aumentare i salari e il potere d'acquisto dei lavoratori,.
00:44:00 - Metodi di Simulazione Monte Carlo e Conclusioni Introduzione ai metodi avanzati per stimare i parametri tramite distribuzioni di probabilità a priori e a posteriori,. Ringraziamenti e invito all'iscrizione al canale,.

💬 Secondo te, i modelli DSGE riescono davvero a catturare la realtà italiana? Scrivilo nei commenti!
▶️ Iscriviti per altri contenuti su Macroeconometria, Politica Monetaria e Analisi dei Dati Economici italiani.
#DSGE #Macroeconomia #Inflazione #EconomiaItaliana #BCE
#PhillipsCurve #NewKeynesian #Econometria #BancaItalia #PolicyMonetaria #CurvaPhillips #ShockEconomici
#ModelloNKPC #SacrificeRatio #CalvoPricing #TassiInteresse #stockmarket #οικονομικά #Economia2025 #CrisiEconomica #PrevisioniEconomiche
#LaureaEconomia #DottoratoRicerca
Listen for Free to The Podcast :
https://open.spotify.com/show/7puiUZxpDb7DT5rYOnIkmk?si=efcc3ea01f304b19
Read for Free and enjoy the Journal with the latest, most important facts you need to know about economics and global markets:
https://capitalmarketjournal.com/la-necessite-universelle-dune-declaration-universelle-des-droits-de-lhomme-plus-complete-et-amelioree/

Educational Disclaimer
This video is produced solely for educational and informational purposes. The content is designed to demystify financial concepts and explore analytical tools for a general audience interested in learning about market dynamics.
Important:
Not Financial Advice: The content presented here, including all data, analysis, models, and strategies discussed, is for illustrative and educational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product.
Seek Professional Guidance: All investment decisions involve unique risks and should be made in consultation with a qualified, independent financial professional, such as your private banker, financial advisor, or a licensed portfolio manager, who can assess your individual circumstances.
(By accessing this content, you acknowledge and agree that you are responsible for your own investment research and decisions)Show More

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Leverage effect could bring seasonal Q1 stock market drawdown

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Mar 18, 2024 capitalmarketsjournal

Financial Econometrics studies have demonstrated that forecasting Value At Risk under standard normal distribution conditions could lead to underestimation of…

Cosa e' il VAR ? Modelli Multivariabili dell'economia Italiana #var #italy #economy

Q1 2025 Seasonal Volatility and Stock Market Correction: A Forecasting Analysis

What Sparks a -20% Dollar Crash? Analyzing Risks, Scenarios, and Market Reactions!

Leverage effect could bring seasonal Q1 stock market drawdown

Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Fat-Tail Distribution Assumptions

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