The widening of the Trade Deficit by $-96.77 for the month of April makes the overall amount to approximately $-364.5 billion dollars, which equates to 1.56 percentage points of GDP in deficit for the balance of trade going into Q2. The data came out with some measures of the CORE PCE Price index ticking up to 4.7%, with a consistent increase in Spending up 0.8%.
the U.S. Trade Deficit up to April has already dug a $-364 billion dollars give or take. That makes 1.56% of GDP, making an arithmetic assumption that the United States Trade Deficits alone could be approximated to -4.6% of GDP for the whole year 2023.
Fiscal Year-to-Date Comparisons with FY2022:
- The government ran a cumulative deficit of $928 billion ($991 billion including timing shifts, $696 billion more than during the same period last year.*)
- Revenues were $2.7 trillion, a decrease of 10%, largely due to:
- $8 billion (4%) net increase in corporate income tax receipts, while individual income and payroll tax revenue declined by $235 billion (9%). Of this amount, non-withheld payments of income and payroll taxes declined by $190 billion (23%), largely reflecting a decrease in 2022 tax liabilities.
- $80 billion (46%) increase in individual income tax refunds.
- $70 billion (99%) decrease in remittances from the Federal Reserve, as continued higher interest rates raised the Fed’s interest expenses above its income and eliminated profits across most of its banks.
- $10 billion (30%) decrease in unemployment insurance (UI) receipts, as states levied higher taxes on employers during FY2022 to replenish UI trust funds that were depleted from high unemployment during the pandemic. (These count towards federal revenue, as UI is a federal program administered by states.)
- $10 billion (18%) decrease in customs duties due to a reduction in imports.
- Outlays were $3.7 trillion, an increase of 12% largely due to:*
- $107 billion (40%) increase in net interest payments on the public debt, the single largest increase in net outlays due to rising interest rates.
- $48 billion (56%) increase in Department of Education programs, largely due to costs associated with the extension of the pause on student loan payments.
- $39 billion increase in spending by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) due to several bank failures throughout spring 2023, which it expects to recover by liquidating the banks’ assets and collecting higher premiums from other FDIC-insured institutions over the next several years.
- $33 billion (8%) increase in spending by the Department of Defense, mainly for operations, maintenance, research, and development.
- $25 billion (7%) increase in Medicaid reflecting enrollment increases stemming from COVID-era eligibility policies. With March’s expiration of the coronavirus public health emergency, April 2023 was the first month in which states could reassess eligibility and disenroll those who no longer qualify, but CBO anticipates it will take several months for states to complete that policy change.
- Impacts reported in January, including the continued lack of spectrum auction receipts this fiscal year (counted as “offsetting receipts”), and a one-time increase in spending by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.
- Funding for several pandemic recovery programs continued recent trends:
- $115 billion (48%) decrease in certain refundable tax credits, largely due to the expiration of the expanded Child Tax Credit.
- $50 billion (74%) decrease in pandemic-related public health expenditures from the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund.
- Approximately $15 billion (nearly 100%) increase in Coronavirus Refundable Credits due to delayed uptake in employer credits, such as for paid sick and family leave.