The Small-Cap 2000 index chart on a weekly time scale has seen a consistent sell-off price action after an excess peak on a false breakout. The Small-Cap index price trendline has gone through the tenkan, kijun and the 50 weeks moving average as going through butter, the price action requires careful attention as the sell-off avalanche can gather a lot of momentum, where the small-cap index price line can aim straight to the 100 weeks moving average RUT 1896<1900 points range, where also the IKH Senkou A/B nuage would become a support checkpoint, although the 200 weeks moving average RUT 1728 points with a -20.20% correction. The RSI oscillator signal weak momentum and weak relative strength, however, the MACD oscillators seems to have shaped an important bear signal with a large period Head & Shoulder pattern, which lately has seen the Moving average line crossing below the period line, that becomes the actual signal of larger Sell orders volumes that could enter the market.
Small Cap 2000 metrics 2020/21 data set
The reduced dataset based on 2020/21 RUT data has reserved some astonishing surprising metrics, as data seem to confirm the thesis, that the stock market rally fuelled by Central Banks excessive liquidity and wrong monetary policy choices, it’s nothing less than a highly inflated Assets Bubble. Starting from the beginning it’s possible to observe that the RUT median value it’s larger than the Mean value, while the mode settles on a lower value. Thereby, the RUT distribution can be defined as asymmetric and negatively skewed. The Small-Cap index has a +9.35% YTD returns and +10.19% 1Year return, metrics that are in line with the Year Variance 12.28%. However, when standardized the Small-Cap index returns produce a Gaussian -1.52% returns distribution while the Skewness produces a wide -161.44% negative skewness. On a lesser note, the Small-Cap index 9.35% YTD returns have to be discounted with 6.8% CPI inflation, another macroeconomic data that confirms the genuinity of how wrong has been for so long Central Banks monetary policy.
Small Cap 2000 metrics on 1999/2021 data set
On a larger data set spanning from 1999/2021 the Small Cap index metrics don’t improve much, as the returns distribution confirms to be asymmetric and negatively skewed, where the Skewness equals -75.91%.