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0 The exchange rate chart of AUD/USD on a daily time scale in the past week has seen the trendline being traded in a narrow range considering the shorter business week in the United States, in fact, the fx pair AUD/USD 0.674 settled near the weekly point of control. With the very high reading of the MACD oscillator in the chart and the possible formation of a double-top pattern could then become a near-term sell signal of AUD/USD. In the chart, it’s possible to see the other point of control and volumes traded, with those AUD/USD 0.665 would be a -1.51% depreciation while a large move in the near term would be AUD/USD 0.647 -4.15% depreciation. Similar FX market setups and patterns have been observed in EUR/USD and GBP/USD as a wider observation that the stock market and equities could actually have a risk-off correction in December, which would be a cross-assets covariance Stocks down, USDollar up.
AUD/USD METRICS
AUD/USD metrics can be explicative of the data and volatility risks that could be hinting at AUD/USD sell-off and exchange rate depreciation. The average exchange rate level smoothed for 10 years of data time series equates to AUD/USD $0.80. The AUD/USD % change returns skewness it’s negative -12.14%, in fact since 2021 the cumulative return of AUD/USD has been -35.94%, which means the Australian Dollar has depreciated -35,94% against the USD dollar. In terms of volatility, in the past 10 years, AUD/USD has recorded 150 VaR 95 days, one business day volatility higher than -1.03% depreciation in AUD/USD. Among other factors, the Australian Dollar has a consistent Correlation with the price of WTI OIL price in fact the Correlation Coefficient of 0.642, another factor to consider could also be if the WTI OIL price would decrease in the same time period. Among other things to consider, could be the interest rate differential with the USDollar 4.0% while the RBA cash rate 2.85%, while also the RBA could be a source of FX market volatility considering exposure of $ -7.98 Billion in Net Forward Foreign Currency commitments, while also short-term Forward Foreign Currency commitments of $-1.5 Billion.
Histogram Distribution of returns
In the wider FX Market positioning: Dealers and Market Makers are net-long AUD/USD, while all other FX Market participants: Assets Managers and Leveraged Funds are net Short AUD/USD.
