ITALY’S YIELD CURVE, 5YEAR CDS IMPROVE IMMEDIATELY WITH THE ADVENT OF FORMER ECB GOVERNOR, AT THE HELM OF ITALY’S GOVERNMENT, TO SAVE THE COUNTRY FROM FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

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ITALY 5 YEARS CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP IMPROVES IMMEDIATELY TESTING THE MILDEST LEVELS OF PERCEIVED RISK OF DEFAULT SINCE 2016. THE TRAJECTORY OF ITALY 5YEAR CDS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE RISK PREMIUM PRICED BY SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS, THAT WOULD PREVENT THE RISK OF A LIQUIDITY CRUNCH OF ITALY’S BANKING SECTOR, WHILE ALSO COMPLETELY IMPROVING FAVOURABLE FINANCING CONDITIONS IN THE ECONOMY AND THE BANKING SECTOR, ALSO MAKING ITALY’S BTP ISSUANCE MUCH MORE ATTRACTIVE TO SOVEREIGN DEBT FUNDS.

The Italy 5 Years CDS value is 96.1

This value reveals a 1.60% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed.

CDS value changed -3.42% during last week, -0.93% during last month, -10.35% during last year.

Change & Range

ITALY YIELD CURVE IMPROVES WITH THE MEDIUM DURATION ISSUANCE 4Y/5Y GOING INTO NEGATIVE YIELD TERRITORY. THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE YIELD CURVE CAN DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE FOR GOOD, THE COSTS OF DEBT SERVICING, AND FINANCING OF PUBLIC DEBT, WHILE IMPROVING LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS IN THE REAL ECONOMY IN ITALY

ITALY 10Y BTP SEES THE PRICE OF ITALY SOVEREIGN DEBT ISSUING SLIGHTLY ABOVE PAR. CHART TECHNICALS ARE BEARISH, WHILE THE PRICE ACTION EXPLAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SENKOU A/B NUAGE. THE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT AT INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL IN ITALY WOULD LIKELY PROVIDE A BOOST, WITH A POSSIBLE +15% UPSIDE UP TO €120, GENERATING APPRECIABLE CAPITAL GAINS FOR ITALIAN SAVERS AND HOLDERS OF ITALY BTPs.

ITALY 10Y YIELD SHOWING A BEARISH ENGULFING CANDLE, SIGNAL A POSSIBLE RANGE 0.15%<0.25%, ALSO AN UNFORSEEN 0.0% ZERO COUPON 10Y BTP THAT CAN BE THE REAL IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ITALY’S PUBLIC DEBT, HAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A ZERO COUPON 10Y BTP, THEREOF HAVING NO ADDITIONAL COUPON COSTS, CUTTING DEBT SERVICING BURDEN.