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Stock markets at all highs during the time’s ordinary people are living in do speaks volumes of an astonishing complacency from financial institutions, banks and speculators of the last hour. Considering the latest volatility patterns seen in the small-cap segment of the market with the Russell 2000 signalling a peak rolling over, then becomes important to factor in other key technical and volatility metrics that can reinforce and foresee considerable market turmoil.

The chart below puts in correlation the IWM(NYSE) iShare Russell 2000 ETF that tracks the wider small-caps index Russell 2000. Some of the key technical and volatility metrics measuring the expected rate of return and possible market drawdowns, do signal consistent patterns of market turmoil, at least in the IWM(NYSE) iShare ETF, that can nonetheless function as underlying risk volatility factor correlated to the broader index Russell 2000.

For what regards the Value at Risk metrics for the IWM iShare ETF the VaR -3,21 considers an abrupt max drawdown of 80%, a metric that can be reinforced by Skewness -2.50 implying fat tail market volatility that would see the normal standard distribution going deep into the tail. The Coefficient of Variation 2,191 also signals a higher risk of price dispersion, where risk-adjusted returns of the IWM(NYSE) iShare ETF are linked to a riskier asset and its coefficient of variation.

Technical Indicators (DAILY)

NameValueAction
RSI(14)44.974Sell
STOCH(9,6)45.720Neutral
STOCHRSI(14)80.904Overbought
MACD(12,26)-21.770Sell
ADX(14)36.137Sell
Williams %R-48.789Neutral
CCI(14)-47.8633Neutral
ATR(14)46.2338High Volatility
Highs/Lows(14)0.0000Neutral
Ultimate Oscillator53.599Buy
ROC-4.238Sell
Bull/Bear Power(13)-42.0917Sell
Buy: 1 Sell: 5 Neutral: 4
Summary:SELL

Moving Averages (DAILY)

PeriodSimpleExponential
MA52193.58
Buy
2204.56
Buy
MA102204.45
Buy
2212.61
Sell
MA202248.38
Sell
2235.22
Sell
MA502266.80
Sell
2255.49
Sell
MA1002256.72
Sell
2217.54
Sell
MA2002108.04
Buy
2093.19
Buy
Buy: 5 Sell: 7
Summary:SELL