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0 The Nasdaq Composite Index metrics elaborated with three datasets: 2005/21, 2010/21, 2015/21 timespan have derived an increasing parametric inference in the skewness, in the proportion that with narrowing number of observations, the related Nasdaq Composite Skewness of the returns distribution, becomes a larger negative percentage. As of the 2005/21 returns dataset, the Skewness of returns distribution equals -26.65%, adjusting the data set timespan to 2010/21 the Nasdaq Composite Skewness equals -54.89%, then narrowing the data set observations time span to 2015/21 the Skewness equals -65.29%. The allocations in Nasdaq listed stocks should be taken very carefully by investors, considering that the industry tends to blindly ignore increasing stock market risks and financial assets bubbles. The dogmatic fideistic assumptions that the Nasdaq Composite would replicate a 1-year return of 23.20% and the 3-years returns of +132.16% are clear evidence of how investors completely ignore market risks, to rather then ignore any day of reckoning for stocks.
The very low money market interest rates monetary policies and the relatively low yield in the risk-free rate, have determined increasing exposures to market risk by stock market investors across the spectrum, in large part spurred by excessive Central Banks liquidity thereby prolonged implementations of wrong monetary policies decisions, that have exposed the stock market to the evident speculative misallocation of unfunded liabilities in financial assets bubble, that would be a financial assets bubble in stocks and a debt bubble in Asia.
Clear and evident signs of a financial assets bubble in stocks and relative speculative mania can be highlighted by the increased volumes of trading in penny stocks and unprofitable companies, while the most risk for investors in stock markets can be clearly defined with the unregulated shares issuances and shares splits that have generated Apple 16.406 billion shares outstanding in stock markets. 16.4 billion shares equate to more than double the entire world population, which makes the scale of 16.4 billion Shares outstanding quite astonishing and a concerning data in terms of financial stability. Similar concerning basic stock market data are the (7,507,980,444) 7.5 Billion Microsoft shares outstanding in the stock market, as Alphabet A/C combined shares outstanding are in excess of 1.2 billion shares outstanding. Thereby the excessive share issuance and stock splitting do become the typical Avalanche Sell-off cascading effect on the large part of equity ETFs, funds and portfolios that have the most concentrated exposure to a handful of large-cap stocks, where the risks are in the range of -50%<-60% in terms of indiscriminate declines in stock prices, at some point in time.
Investors continue not to understand, that financial markets and stock markets, in all their segments ranging from stocks to money markets, are already on an overextended unstable footing, for which any financial crisis would become the natural consequence rather than the cause.
The Nasdaq composite chart on a daily time scale has seen a drift lower in the Nasdaq Composite price line, from where a diagonal line matching the lower highs made in late Q4, could define the 15850<15880 points range the potential area of Nasdaq Composite trend reversal. If verified, the trend reversal has the potential of a -9.14% sell-off to test the Nasdaq 14250 points being the Q2 2021 highs as a technical support area. The oscillators in the chart also see a moderate RSI oscillator that already rolled over with a Sell signal, meanwhile, the MACD also seems nearing a Sell signal.
As for the Nasdaq Composite index metrics derived by a 2010/21 timespan dataset. There are relatively few hints to gather. The normal Nasdaq Composite volatility defines a daily 1.22% standard deviation, as the Standard deviation on a year span could be in the range of 19.39%<20.39%<21.26%, thereby an average 20.35% standard deviation on a year timescale of potential returns or declines. However, the Nasdaq Composite dataset elaborates a Gaussian value -0.0184 the value of a standardised return in between -2σ and -3σ negative standard deviation as in fact the skewness of the returns distribution elaborates a large negative -54.89% negatively skewed distribution, as in fact the upper outlier return 0.09=9.0% contrast to a larger lower outlier -0.12=-12%, that in the histogram graph help define the negative skewness in the Nasdaq Composite returns distribution. Considering the standardized nature of the Nasdaq Composite returns market risk metrics and the VaR(95) -2.01% down to VaR(99.9) -3.77% do provide market risk parameters that could be verified with increasing stock market volatility.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX METRICS AND VALUE AT RISK METRICS ON A 2005/21 TIMESPAN DATA SET
