Views: 562
0 0
Read Time:2 Minute

The DAX40 chart on a monthly time scale gives a wider perspective to the overall price action of the blue chip index, highlighting the trendline drifting within the Bollinger Band, while also defining the DAX40 price/volume channel. The blue chip benchmark has been lately modified going from DAX30, incorporating 30 listed stocks, to DAX40, thereby becoming a benchmark index with 40 listed stocks. There are a few particular technical points that the DAX40 chart provides. Observing the upper line of the Bollinger Band it’s possible to see a Double Top area with the Tenkan line as parametre DAX40 15000<14850 range, that eventually does not represents a solid support area in the chart., as infact the relevant technical area of support would be the 50 months moving average and the Kijun Line. The oscillators in the chart also could be approaching a Sell signal with the MACD near a lines crossover Sell Signal, mean while the RSI already provided a Sell signal off the overbought RSI line. The overall correction range the Bollinger Band provides defines a -29.5% correction that would match the IKH Senkou A/B nuage. The relevant factor that also provides substantive probability to a -29.5% correction in the DAX40 has been provided by the DAX40 metrics itself, as the resulting Skewness of -29.38%, describes how the standard normal distribution of DAX40 returns are symmetryc to the lef tail of the distribution, thereby a -29.38% skewness does in fact match the lower edge of the Bollinger Band -29.47%, so chart technicals do provide market signals that can be matched with the DAX40 metrics.

With a dataset 2009/21, the DAX40 metrics also provide enhanced and broader perspective of the overall benchmark fundamentals. According to data the DAX40 mean value equals 9832.76 points, however the larger value of the Median 9971.79 and Mode 9851.35 also give substance to the notion of negatively skewed returns distribution. The 2021 DAX40 return 15.79% has been in line with a 20.85% standard deviation, although the Alpha generated compared to the S&P500 as benchmark has been 0% in the last year, meanwhile in the last two years the DAX40 Alpha -2.48% highlights an underperformance compared to the S&P500 benchmark at the whole index level. In terms of volatility patterns daily VaR(95) -2.16% although a large percentange has been verified already, thereby DAX40 VaR metrics could be also be taken into consideration as volatility patterns inference to define market risk.