UK Treasury’s at risk of GILTs funding crisis with loss of access to Sovereign Debt Market
UK-denominated Sovereign Debt GILTs could be at risk of not finding bidders and not finding a price for GILTs debt, as access to the Global Debt market could freeze. The…
On “Being and Time”
Incredibly interesting how Heidegger in “Being and Time” describes the features of research and theoretical research “Posing a problem means trying to know the entity as to its what-it is…
“Make me a hinge”. Produce in the most efficient way, in the shortest time, with essential utilization of material.
It’s perhaps shocking to write but fulfilling to admit in inspiration and with an urge of human conscience, the modern model of production and modus operandi of the ultrarational form…
On Capitalism and Totalitarian thought
We live in a society of waste and consumerism, but no one has the courage to admit it, because the immediate gratification of every habit and vice makes the human…
On being and existence, according to Karl Jaspers
The existence of being, for Karl Jaspers, is a checkmate of the being and a shipwreck in the impossibility of choice. Any human being and any living being doesn’t decide…
Illiteracy resulting from social media and mass media
Technology, social media and propaganda made with the mass media pose an epochal paradox that erodes the foundations of logical thinking and unambiguous communication, both at the basis of the…
Housing market and construction industry could be on a cliff edge in Germany
German House Price Index seems to have peaked after a parabolic multi-decade 0% interest rate Housing market and construction sector speculative bubble, Housing Market in Germany could see a considerable…
Where to find the literary references of, Chairman Powell, Symposium speech
The annual Jackson Hole Symposium has been anticipated, followed and commented on with much attention in the financial services industry, where many had been waiting and wondering about the Federal…
THE NIFTY50 INDEX IT’S GOING TO TOP OUT WITH A -12% EQUITIES MARKET SELL-OFF
THE CHART OF THE NIFTY50 INDEX COULD BE GOING TO SEE A SHARP FALL DOWNWARD TOPPING OUT, CONSIDERING ALSO THE OVERBOUGHT RSI OSCILLATOR. ASIAN ECONOMIES COULD BE ON THE VERGE…
MOODY’S DOWNGRADES FLAMINGO GROUP LTD REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the ratings of Flamingo Group International Limited (Flamingo or the company), including its corporate family rating (CFR) to Caa1 from B3; its probability of default rating…
Moody’s downgrades Huws Gray’s ratings to B3 from B2
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the long-term corporate family rating (CFR) of Patagonia Bidco Limited (Huws Gray or the company) to B3 from B2 and the probability of default rating (PDR)…
THE FTSE100 COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF AN EQUITIES MARKET CORRECTION
The FTSE 100 chart on a monthly time scale has seen the Bollinger Band giving to the FTSE 100 price line a Sell Signal, that has been consolidating on the…
From the book, Obsolescence of Mankind, Gunther Anders, 1956
“To crush any revolt in advance, one must not use violence. Methods such as those used by Hitler are outdated. It is enough to develop such a powerful collective conditioning…
Pound expected depreciation in FX markets
British Pound GARCH Volatility Analysis Volatility Prediction for Monday, July 31st, 2023: 7.44% (+0.03%) expected increase in GBP volatility GBP/USD 1.2844 exchange rate to depreciate -2.95% down to GBP/USD 1.2455…
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS DISPOSABLE INCOME GDPXCAPITA INFLATION OMITTED VARIABLE BIAS PHILLIPS CURVE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
HOW CAN WE BETTER ESTIMATE PHILLIPS CURVE WITH VAR MODELS
In a conversation with uni professor of financial data analysis and econometrics, a possible explanation came up for the Phillips curve, as for omitted variable bias that doesn’t allow the…
INVESTMENT RISKS IN BOND PORTFOLIOS
To really understand what is the dynamic of bond pricing, we’ve been ignoring all kinds of risks associated with bond investments. But of course, in the real world, there are…
MAIN CONCEPTS OF PRICING DEBT INSTRUMENTS
A central concept of bond pricing is the present value. So what is the present value?The present value is the value calculated today of a series of expected cash flows…
Capital Markets and Their Financial Functions
Capital markets are essential components of the global financial system, providing a platform for individuals, businesses, and governments to raise capital and allocate resources efficiently. In this essay, we will…
An Overview of Monetary Policy Theory
Monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping economic outcomes by influencing the money supply, interest rates, and financial conditions. Central banks around the world utilize monetary policy as a…
Money Markets interest rates in simple terms
There’s a misunderstanding about the interest rate monetary policy tool and it’s very simple. with high inflation rates and a decrease in money purchasing power, the Central Banks have to…
FTSEMIB ON A -20% CORRECTION DOWNTREND
THE FTSE MIB CHART TECHNICAL INDICATORS DEFINED WHAT COULD BE A -20% CORRECTION OFF THE PEAK OF A DOUBLE-TOP TRENDLINE PATTERN. MOST OF THE TECHNICAL SIGNAL CAN BE DERIVED BY…
Moody’s downgrades Canary Wharf Group Investment Holdings plc to Ba3; ratings remain placed on review for further downgrade
Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) has today downgraded to Ba3 from Ba1 and placed on review for further downgrade the long-term corporate family rating (CFR) and the senior secured instrument ratings…
Will the United States Unemployment rate of 3.7% converge to its long-term natural trend of 4.42%
U2 unemployment data 3.7%, seems drifting slowly to the long-run natural rate of unemployment 4.42%, according to FRED data. Fred Nairu 4.42% compared to the Unemployment rate of 3.4%, can…
The Bund Yield curve continues to be wildly mispriced
Germany’s Inflation data have been moderating, however, the BUND Yield curve continues to be wildly mispriced The Bund yield curve has been very contained but continues to be mispriced. These…
UK’s economy stagflationary dynamics continue to materialise
Considering the UK has been in a stagflationary economic quagmire since the back half of 2021, but nobody can reconcile themselves with reality. here are some ONS charts: The number…
WHY YOUR LOAVES OF BREAD CAN BE QUITE VOLATILE
In this study, the time series of the Retail Price Index has been taken from the Great Britain ONS data series, with time-series observations that span from 1948 to 2023,…
U.S. Trade Deficit widens in April to $-96.77 Billion dollars, that adds uncertainty to the $928 Billion Fiscal deficit
The widening of the Trade Deficit by $-96.77 for the month of April makes the overall amount to approximately $-364.5 billion dollars, which equates to 1.56 percentage points of GDP…
CPIH Forward Curve Inflation percentage variance expectation, signal CPIH converging to 2.0% aim in 2025
UK consumers’ Inflation expectations have been at the highest for the past two decades. CPIH(excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco). on a similar construct of Inflation Linked Swap curves (euro…
SINGAPORE’S GDP SHRINKING ADDS DEPRECIATION PRESSURES TO SINGAPORE DOLLAR
USD/SGD could continue to rally, based on technical charts, says Quek Ser Leang, markets strategist of UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, in a research report. The currency pair has…
FRONT END GILTs YIELD CURVE MISPRICED COMPARED TO 5.2% INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Inflation Expectations in the United Kingdom decreased to 5.20% in April from 5.40% in March of 2023 THE FRONT END OF THE UK GILTS YIELD CURVE HAS BEEN MISPRICED FOR…
The S&P 500 is overvalued and a correction would be natural
A macroeconomic interpretation of the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet could be that q(t)=1+C'{I(t)}, the value of one more unit of capital= cost of getting one more unit of…
Moody’s changes rating to negative on ten UK PFI
Moody’s affirmed the A2 underlying debt ratings of seven UK hospital Private Finance Initiative (PFI) project issuers: Criterion Healthcare PLC, Endeavour SCH PLC, HPC King’s College Hospital (Issuer) PLC, United…
SANTANDER’S RMBS CREDIT DERIVATIVE LOANS PORTFOLIO DOWNGRADED
Moody’s downgraded the rating of Class B notes in FONDO DE TITULIZACIÓN RMBS SANTANDER 7 (“RMBS Santander 7”). The rating action reflects worse-than-expected collateral performance and the unpaid interest accumulated…
Moody’s downgrades all of EMEA CMBS credit derivatives issued by HAUS
Moody’s has today downgraded all classes of EMEA CMBS issued by HAUS (EUROPEAN LOAN CONDUIT) DAC (“Issuer”): ….EUR 194.2M Class A1 Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 23,…
Adidas’debt credit rating downgraded, on declining profit and retail sales
Adidas senior unsecured debt credit rating downgraded to A3 from A2 the long-term issuer ratings of Adidas AG. Moody’s also downgraded Adida’s short-term issuer rating to Prime-2 from Prime-1. RATING…
Moody’s downgrades Checkers Holdings credit rating to Ca following missed principal payment on first-lien term loan facilities
Moody’s downgraded Checkers Holdings, Inc.’s (Checkers) probability of default rating (PDR) to Ca, its corporate family rating (CFR) to Ca from Caa2 and its senior secured bank credit facility to…
Moody’s downgrades Provident Group to Caa3 following payment default
Approximately $36 million of debt securities affected Moody’s has downgraded to Caa3 from Caa2 the ratings assigned to Provident Group senior secured obligations, including the senior secured revenue bonds following…
CMBS STRUCTURED FINANCE DEBT ISSUED BY JPMCC DOWNGRADED
Approximately $309 million of structured securities affected downgraded the ratings on two classes of CMBS securities, issued by J.P. Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2019-MFP, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates,…
Moody’s downgrades Yale New Haven Health Services Corporation (CT) to A1
Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Yale New Haven Health Services Corporation’s (YNHH, CT) revenue bond ratings to A1 from Aa3. Yale New Haven Health Services Corporation (HSC) is the obligated…
Economies with persistent large deficits financed by borrowing, become prone to sustained higher inflation
Economies with persistent large deficits financed by borrowing, become prone to sustained higher inflation. When deficits become too large eventually there’s no amount of money printing that plugs the deficit…
Sterling money market rates pricing a 5% bank rate peak at the Bank of England
The 3-Month (Sterling Overnight Index Average) interest rate curve forecast a 5% money market peak interest rate according to the Bank of England These are the Bank of England rates…
Commercial Property Prices decreased by -15% since property prices peaked a year ago
Commercial Property Price Index decreased by 0.2% in March. The index has fallen by -15% since property prices peaked a year ago. The chart tracks CRE in America. “Transaction volumes…
Housing Market prices inflating to unhealthy excesses for credit markets
The housing market has probably increased to risky levels for credit markets. Since 2009, from the lowest average price to Q4 2022, Housing prices in the UK capital have increased…
Treasuries yield curve correlated to CPI Inflation expectations
February CPI (excluding food & energy) year on year was 6.1%, and in Feb 2021 was 1.3%. that makes the 2Y inflation expectation about 4.8%. Fed Funds at the minute…
CPI INFLATION EURO AREA HICP EURO AREA INTEREST RATES Inflation Expectations INTEREST RATE MODEL INTERPOLATION INTEREST RATE PARAMETRE ESTIMATION
EURO AREA HICP INFLATION DATA BENEFITS FROM DECREASING ENERGY PRICES
Euro Area Inflation data are quite controversial. CORE CPI jumps to 1.2% an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, therefore CPI CORE INFLATION year on year needs to be…
Commercial Real Estate securitized credit derivatives downgraded, because of declining credit quality
downgraded the ratings on six classes in COMM 2012-CCRE2 Mortgage Trust (“COMM 2012-CCRE2”), Commercial Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2012-CCRE2 as follows: Cl. D, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Sep 22,…
CREDIT BUBBLE CREDIT DERIVATIVES DEFAULT CREDIT DERIVATIVES PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADE HOUSING DEVELOPERS DEBT LEVERAGE
Moody’s has taken rating actions by downgrading UK housing associations, underlying credit derivatives finance and SPVs
Moody’s has downgraded the Baseline Credit Assessments (BCAs) of 12 HAs by one notch and of one HA by two notches. The BCA of Alliance Homes Group (Alliance) was downgraded…
Moody’s downgrades UK Private Healthcare provider: United Healthcare (Bromley) Limited’s underlying rating to Baa1 from A2; outlook remains negative
Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has today downgraded to Baa1 from A2 the underlying rating of the GBP138.4 million of index-linked senior secured bonds due in 2036 (the Bonds) issued by…
Moody’s downgrades the rating on GBP 41.4m Project Finance CLO notes of Semperian Senior Funding Plc
Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has downgraded the rating on the following notes issued by Semperian Senior Funding Plc: ….GBP 41.4M Class D Notes, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jun…
MOODY’S DOWNGRADES VENATOR MATERIAL plc SIGNAL INCREASING PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT
Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has downgraded the Corporate Family Rating (“CFR”) of Venator Materials plc (“Venator”) to Caa1 from B2, the Probability of Default Rating (“PDR”) to Caa1-PD from B2-PD…
UK FOOD RETAILER CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADED
Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has today downgraded the corporate family rating (CFR) and the probability of default rating (PDR) of Market Holdco 3 Limited, a holding company formed to effect…
What do we do with a drunken sailor?
On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations stand at 6.1% On this chart, UK Inflation Expectations have risen to 5.6% in February, as CPI Inflation increased to 10.4%. Important to notice…
UK INFLATION RISES TO 10.4% WITH FOOD INFLATION SURGING TO 18%
As expected the UK CPI Inflation measure increases to 10.4%. This will make sure that the OBR and Exchequer 2.9% target goes out of the window as plain baloney. The…
UK SPRING BUDGET, ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY
The big idea coming from the UK Exchequer Spring Budget, it’s a rough measure of Capex that won’t produce what’s hoped, but rather accounting tricks to inflate capex expenditure so…
How will drift the USD/JPY exchange rate? More Dollar strength shouldn’t be ignored
Dollar/Yen chart 12 months timeframe. Every candlestick= 12 months. USD/JPY 105.95 | 106.0 exchange rate has seen the largest volume traded. However, although the BoJ has very large USDollar reserves…
S&P 500 POTENTIAL -15% SELL-OFF
SPX price/volume, Daily timescale chart, below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, that means SPX in logarithmic function. Most important SPX 3963 Point of Control SELL-OFF Signal, with a potential Head&Shoulder…
France and Italy’s short-term sovereign debt seeing higher volatility
Observing high volatility in the 1-Month CTZ Italian debt yield. There’s a 348 basis point increase intraday. the yield jumped +26.28%. The chart below explains how the 1Month CTZ Yield…
S&P500 could probably decline -25% on SPX 2885 points
The S&P500 chart on a large time scale can be useful in defining what are the important market levels for one of the stock market’s index benchmarks. Considering the price/volume…
POSITIVE INTEREST RATES PRICE STABLITY PRICES STANDARD DEVIATION QUALITATIVE ASSETS PURCHASE PROGRAMS
CENTRAL BANKS WILL HAVE TO COMBINE MONETARISM AND INTEREST RATES TOOLS WITH QUALITATIVE ASSETS PURCHASES
The coordinated work of monetary policy tools, such as the quantity of money and the interest rate tool. It’s the evidence that the Zero-Lower-Bound interest rate policy has become the…
Crude Oil Futures curve contango for 2023 pricing in higher Oil demand
WTI CRUDE OIL 4h chart oscillator seems oversold and at the lowest price/volume area that could become a turning point for Crude Oil buyers. In particular, physical Crude Oil utilizers…
S&P50 futures pricing 4100 | 4000 points, while Federal Fund rate hike to peak in Q2 2023
S&P500 E-Mini Futures 2023 contracts have been traded in a narrow range of 3900 | 4100 points Federal Fund rate futures and the 3-Month SOFR futures are pricing the peak…
With the Dollar Index in a support area, the S&P500 could have to sell off. Up or Down?
The Dollar Index chart highlights an inverse hammer candlestick reversal that shaped out on Friday, while the Dollar Index rallied initially and then sold off during the day, therefore the…
GBP/USD exchange rate technical sell signal; exchange rate depreciation could be -3.12% to GBP/USD 1.156
The chart for GBP/USD exchange rate on a daily time scale has provided clear technical signals of trend reversal with a Sell signal. In fact, the GBP/USD trendline has been…
The Australian Dollar could be going to depreciate, in the exchange rate with the USDollar
The exchange rate chart of AUD/USD on a daily time scale in the past week has seen the trendline being traded in a narrow range considering the shorter business week…
EUR/USD TECHNICAL SELL SIGNAL AT 200DAYS MOVING AVERAGE
The chart for the EUR/USD exchange rate on a daily time scale actually provides some technical details of a possible trend reversal and a sell signal of depreciation for the…
Brent Crude Oil prices could be decreasing by -8.67% to -18.15% between $78 to $68.7 dollars
The Brent Crude Oil chart on a wider timescale seems to provide some technical indicators that prices of Brent Crude Oil could have technically peaked. In the chart, it’s possible…
The UK economy’s in stagflation and Fiscal policy it’s not here to help
Fiscal policy it’s quite a tough nut to crack. In fact, the most common measure known as the DEBT/GDP ratio can be quite funny. In fact, even without increasing debt,…
Morgan Stanley’s cost of equity, VaR, and theoretical stock price fair value
Cost of Equity data series of Morgan Stanley At the minute, 3.8% risk-free rate, S&P500 market return=12.33% between 2014/22. Morgan Stanley’s future yearly dividend could be $8.01. The CAPM cost…
TOMATOES INFLATION, PRICES VARIANCE DETERMINES A LARGER SIGMA INFLATION FACTOR IN PRICES
TOMATOES PRICES are truly interesting. The largest Sigma increase in tomato prices has been between 1990/93. After, the United States has become a huge TOMATO producer, one of the largest…
EXCESSIVE DEBT LEVERAGE FX DEPRECIATION HOUSING MARKET CRISIS INFLATIONARY SHOCKS SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL CRISIS
FX DEPRECIATION WITH INFLATION ARE PRECURSORY SIGNS OF A WIDER SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL CRISIS
Observing inflation data from the U.S. economy, item by item. Found that double-digit price increases start in 2003/04 and that 2007/08 have been INFLATIONARY SHOCKS TO THE ECONOMY. Plugging up…
EURO AREA ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE DECREASES
Euro Area GDP rapidly decreased to 0.2% in the month of September. Q4 economic output continues to be a solid question mark. Reasonable to see the risks of decreasing and…
GBP/USD 0.91<0.67 to drift much lower than the parity
The British Pound could be going to see a currency crisis and a complete repricing of the exchange rate, there are many reasons that markets and financial institutions have been…
Inflationary gaps and the Phillips Curve
A possible reason why economies are at full employment and with that there’s High and persistent Inflation and inflationary pressures. Drawing a possible Phillips Curve, the Inflation line and unemployment…
The Stagflation conundrum, High Inflation and negative output gap
“If actual growth is higher than the long-run trend rate, then we get inflationary pressures. If growth is below the long-run trend rate, we get a negative output gap and…
UK POTENTIAL OUTPUT GAP CHART UTILIZING GDP DEFLATOR
The United Kingdom’s “potential output gap” seems to be narrow. UK Labor Productivity has grown above the 2019 peak, Participation Rate it’s larger and better than the United States labour…
INTEREST RATE MODEL INTERPOLATION INTEREST RATE PARAMETRE ESTIMATION SONIA FORWARD CURVE SONIA SWAP RATES
Sterling money market interest rate forecast
As the Bank of England and the Fed are scheduled for their monetary policy meetings. Tried to forecast BoE Sterling money market data with interesting statistical results. Bank of England…
Italy’s 5y5y Breakeven Inflation
Considering difficult to find Inflation Linked Swaps data to understand the EuroArea 5y5y breakeven inflation rate. In the chart below you got: a 5y BTP yield of 3.29%, a 10y…
The FX Market does not care until it does, $Dollar overvaluation will peak soon
When a country generates economic output with a Balance of trade deficit and Fiscal Deficit, that means borrowing funds from abroad and getting goods on credit. The USDollar won’t sustain…
Eurosystem, Target 2 balance and the intrinsic fragility of currency unions
The EUROSYSTEM, similar to all currency unions, has been engineered and constructed with flaws. The discrete Balance of Payments of any Country in the EURO AREA is structured only to…
Euro Area financial Institutions continue the defensive hedge against the EURO depreciation
Eurosystem aggregate data sees a net short position of €21.05 billion in 1 month and 3 months forward and fx swaps in foreign currencies against the EURO. In the Euro…
Taylor rule formula interpolated with United States macroeconomic data. Lowest estimate Federal Fund Rate 4.69%, higher estimate Federal Fund Rate 8.5% and 9.35%
The equation into words, the (original) Taylor rule predicts that the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate (tighten monetary policy) by one-half percentage point: (1) for each percentage point…
Manufacturing PMI across European economies signal recessionary output.
HIGHER PRODUCTION COSTS AND INFLATIONARY PRICES HAVE SEEN RIPPLE EFFECTS ON GERMAN RETAIL SALES THAT HAVE DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY.
The ECB needs to rebalance Target2 flows by allowing the Bund Yield curve to rise to narrow credit spreads
ECB has the flexibility of selectively intervening in the primary market to buy the Sovereign debt issuances where credit spreads have widened against the Bunds yields curve. It’d be entirely…
Federal Fund interest rate model derives a neutral level of equilibrium interest rate of 4.56%<4.6%
FedFundEffectiveRate 0.83%. Taking datasets 1954/2022. Followed up with an interest rate model forecast. T-Stat derives a p-value 5.34% that could be attainable. Fed Fund equilibrium interest rate 4.6%>4.56%. Variance of…
The U.S. Dollar strength variables could determine a DXY -1.75% pullback in the near term
Financial conditions and interest rate differential have been the main reasons that have determined the U.S. Dollar strength, although the variables to consider and factorise to understand the reasons for…
Why Central Banks have relied for too long on biased CPI Index methodologies, that have constantly misplaced price stability
Similar methodologies in calculating Inflation & inflation % changes are too simplistic. These are methodologies based on index formulas that in the end calculate the sum of weighted % changes…
BONOS YIELDS FISCAL DEFICIT Stock Market TREASURIES MARKET TREASURIES YIELDS VOLATILITY RISK YIELD CURVE
Treasuries Sell-off signals liquidity concern factor, some Sovereign Yield curve spreads outline Sovereign debt securities mispricing
If the financial system were to avoid a Sovereign debt yield shock, Central Banks and Institutional debt fund managers would have much more attentive in the issuances of Sovereign debt…
DXY 101.0 overbought, approaching sell signal. An overbought USDollar could be hurting exports of U.S. products and hydrocarbons to Europe
The DXY chart on a weekly time scale, highlights an Overbought DXY trend, where the RSI oscillator also signals OVERBOUGHT conditions. In the Chart with the RSI , similar Overbought patterns have been highlighted,with approaching a Sell Signal…
Dow Industrial’s Bollinger band technical signal of drift lower to Dow 32390
The leveraged gains in the Dow30 index and listed stocks in statistical terms have been achieved with negative returns skewness, that means the standardization of returns are skewed in the…
Q4 economic growth was underpinned by Inflationary prices in the American economy. Real economic growth averages between 1.5%<2.5%
The economic growth expansion of 6.9% in Q4 in the United States does highlight a robust expansion in the economy, although most of the increases in the economy have been…
Slavery and Indentured Servitude in Dubai
To understand the massive growth in Dubai, the construction and labor industries must be takeninto account. Dubai’s enormous skyscrapers and human-engineered islands are built by theefforts of hundreds of thousands…
United States goods trade balance digs in another record deficit $-107.63 Billion Dollar
The US goods trade deficit widened to an all-time high of USD 107.63 billion in January of 2022 from a revised USD 100.47 billion in the previous month, the advance…
EuroStocks50 index -27% correction could be very probable
The EuroStoxx50 index chart highlights the evident EuroStoxx50 all-time high reversal breaking also the Tenkan support, which makes it even clearer that the Eurostoxx50 price/volume trendline has no support and…
The EURO can drift lower -4.6% to EUR/USD 1.08
The EURO exchange rate against the USDollar has been drifting lower for quite sometime where the recent EUR/USD 1.1460 retest has been sold off in technical indication of how the…
BANKS Hedge Fund Leveraged Treasuries Financing MONEY-MARKETS REPO REPO TRANSACTIONS REVERSE REPO Stock Market STOCK MARKET CORRECTION structured products hedge risks VOLATILITY RISKS
The Reverse Repo facility increase to $1.64 Trillion, probably hides leveraged funds exposures
The Reverse Repo facility balance grew to $1.9 trillion to then slowly decrease to $1.64 Trillion over the past few months. Although the Reverse Repo facility allows the Federal Reserve,…
S&P500 has started an inflation driven correction of -42.5% that would bring the S&P500 2750 in the most optimistic scenario
The stock market has all the hallmarks of financial assets speculative bubble and these characteristics have been particularly exacerbated by Central Banks monetary policy mistakes and by late Fiscal spending…
Canadian unemployment disappointing data could determine further Canadian dollar weakness. USD/CAD 1.32 a feasible exchange rate level going forward
The Canadian economy shed 200.1 thousand jobs in January of 2022, following an upwardly revised 78.6 thousand gain in December and more than market expectations of a 117.5 thousand fall.…
Some of the reasons why the FATF considers ‘grey listing’ UAE over Anti-Money-Laundering concerns
The glass-and-steel office towers and luxury hotels along Sheikh Zayed Road are glittering reminders of Dubai’s rise from a cluster of settlements to what’s been called “one of the urban…
CAC40 -3.97% decline, it’s a VaR(99.9) fat tail volatility. That anticipates a further -7.85% selloff
A chart on a daily time scale of the CAC40, the french blue-chip index, has experienced a very high volatility day together with all major indexes in Europe. The -3.97%…
Euro-Schatz Futures have to reprice -0.80% to €110.95, with the yield drifting to -0.41%
Sovereign debt yields and with that bond premium have started to discount that Inflationary pressures in CPI and PPI are going to become a structural feature of economic growth. In…
FINANCIAL STABILITY RISK MARKET RISKS NASDAQ Stock Market STOCK MARKET BUBBLES STOCK MARKET CORRECTION
Index metrics of the Nasdaq Composite require prudence by investors. Any data-driven stock market correction of a -50% magnitude could eventually provide a big discount
The Nasdaq Composite Index metrics elaborated with three datasets: 2005/21, 2010/21, 2015/21 timespan have derived an increasing parametric inference in the skewness, in the proportion that with narrowing number of…
DAX40 chart and metrics hint at a -29.5% correction
The DAX40 chart on a monthly time scale gives a wider perspective to the overall price action of the blue chip index, highlighting the trendline drifting within the Bollinger Band,…
United States Producers Price Index increases to 9.6%, precursor to higher CPI and Core Inflation going forward
Producer Prices in the United States increased 9.60% in November of 2021 over the same month in the previous year. Producers Price Index 9.6% month on month variance simmetryc of…
SANTA CLAUS SELL-OFF, FTSE100 6995 POINTS A FEASIBLE RETRACEMENT
The FTSE 100 chart on a daily timescale highlights a clear double-top pattern at 7300 points, which already provided a sell signal that could see a retracement of the whole…
S&P500 CONTINUED SELL-OFF A CONCRETE PROBABILITY
S&P500 RETRACEMENT OF THE SPX 4540 ALSO SPX 4285. THE S&P500 METRICS HINT AT A -29.35% SKEWNESS, STANDARDIZED GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION -2.49%. YTD RETURNS +24.37% CONTRAST A 19.61% STANDARD DEVIATION. LAST…
FTSEMIB COULD PLUMMET AT LEAST -21% AT THE NEXT DOWNTURN, BETWEEN Q1 AND Q2 2022
THE FTSEMIB HAS BEEN TRADED AT VERY OVERBOUGHT LEVELS. THE MACD OSCILLATOR CONTINUES TO GIVE A SELL SIGNAL, SPOTTING THE TREND DIVERGENCE. THE LEAST FTSEMIB SELL OFF SHOULD BE IN…
SLOW MOTION MICROSOFT SHARES FROM $0.09 CENTS TO PARABOLIC $350 DOLLARS/SHARE. UNITED STATES STOCKS ARE THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL STABILITY RISK EVER SEEN
MSFT SHARES HAVE SEEN ENGINEERED 9 STOCK SPLITS Microsoft (MSFT) has 9 splits in our Microsoft stock split history database. The first split for MSFT took place on September 21, 1987. This…
Germany CPI 5.2% and HICP 6.0% signal increasing inflationary pressures, the Bund yield curve becomes increasingly untenable for investors
Germany’s consumer price inflation rate is expected to climb to 5.2% year-on-year in November 2021, the highest rate since June 1992 and above market expectations of 5%, a preliminary estimate…
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE MARKET RISKS Stock Market STOCK MARKET BUBBLES STOCK MARKET CORRECTION Value At Risk VOLATILITY RISK
DJIA 28350 points, with a -18.77% sell-off, could be a possible outcome in Q4, but also Q1 2022
The ThanksGiving market sell-off has come about with reduced open market hours, blatantly and clearly engineered by the large market players and financial institutions to take small and retail investors…
Dollar Index upside in overbought territory, while durable goods orders declined -0.5%, Economic growth at 2.1% in Q3
Slowing economic growth in Q3 2.1% while GDP sales of domestic U.S. products in Q3 were 0.0%, are both clues of an economy that has been losing momentum, as in…
Germany Business climate indicator declining on perceived economic slowdown in Europe
The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany fell for the fifth month running to 96.5 in November 2021, the lowest level since April and slightly below market expectations of 96.6.…
Nearly $500 billion lost yearly to global tax abuse due mostly to corporations, new analysis says
Governments around the world are losing nearly $500 billion in tax revenue per year to global tax abuse, according to a new report. The State of Tax Justice 2021 — published…
EUR/USD PUT/CALL RATIO 1.88, WITH NO CALLS BOUGHT AT EUR/USD 1.10. UPSIDE FOR THE EURO COULD WELL BE GAME OVER
The EUR/USD exchange rate chart on a monthly time scale has seen a technically perfect trend reversal. In fact, The EUR/USD exchange rate price trendline has clipped twice the 0.50…
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